The 'Uniparty' desperately wants you to believe this GOP primary is over and that we're destined to see the rematch of two tired octogenarians that a vast majority of Americans do NOT want to have to endure. It’s what the Republican ‘establishment’ wants. It’s what Democrats want. It’s what the media wants.
Don't believe it. This primary isn't close to over.
Yes, Ron DeSantis' campaign has underperformed so far. Yes, Donald Trump's various indictments continue to give him polling fuel. However, as anyone who follows politics long enough knows, political winds that blow one direction, even for a long while, can turn quickly and blow another.
It's still early, and too many things will and can happen between now and the various state election days in 2024 to declare Trump the presumptive nominee, despite how much he desperately wants to be crowned.
Here are a few key things that will occur between now and when the fat lady finally sings:
GOP Debates
These are crucial, starting with the first one this month. DeSantis must perform well whether or not Trump shows, and if Trump refuses to show he must shame him mercilessly for it. He has the ability to be a passionate speaker and display a remarkable grasp of issues, and he'll need both skills here. Expect Ron to come out guns blazing with nothing to lose.
Gavin Newsom debate
Even occurring in November, this one is a tremendous gift. Again, a strong performance is needed. Newsom is smart and a smooth talker, and shouldn't be underestimated. However, if DeSantis can hold his own and get some nice jabs in, his profile will rise. The sight of two young leaders of populous states sparring on national television will allow people to see what could be instead of what has been. When they see it, they will begin to believe it.
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Early state primaries/caucuses
DeSantis needs to place first or second in both Iowa and New Hampshire and outperform polling to stay competitive going forward. If he does this, Trump's aura of inevitability will be pierced and other states could follow as people who want an alternative to Trump (most Republicans, actually) come on board to the only candidate who can beat him.
DeSantis campaign finds its groove
This is already happening and will continue to get better. If there is ever a time for mistakes, that time is early in a campaign. I’m not going to rub their noses in them here, but I think we can expect a tighter game going forward. Hopefully, most of those mistakes are out of their system and they can really get going.
Legal action
The public will start to grow weary of the sight of Trump constantly being in court for one thing or another, because it will start to grow routine - too routine. Polling consistently shows that even Republicans don't want an actual convicted felon as their nominee. If Trump could literally be in jail when election day comes, what are we doing here? What point are we proving? That the system is corrupt? Didn't we already know that? How about we elect someone who can actually FIX the system instead of doubling-down on failure?
Campaign financing issues
With Trump having to spend a yuge percentage of campaign funds on mounting legal bills, will donors continue to fund the grift? I think as time goes on they will tire of it. We’re supposed to be financing a political campaign that can win in November 2024. Bogus or not (and many doubtless are), when all your focus is simply trying to keep your candidate out of prison, how effective a campaign can you possibly run?
Trump stepping on rakes
Let’s face it, he does this all the time anyway, and it’ll only get worse as the desperation mounts. For example, what kind of person writes “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!” on a social media post directly after being indicted for a crime? The man has zero discipline, and will continue stepping on rakes both legally and politically as the campaign continues.
The silent DeSantis voter finds a voice
Just like the silent Trump voter of 2016, the silent Republican DeSantis voter does exist. I know plenty both on social media and in real life. They are tired of Trump, but they also don’t want to lose friends or get hassled by Trump supporters for refusing to worship the God emperor. This, of course, comports with the overall American voter view of Trump, considering his 37% favorability rating. Expect them to grow in number and to make their voices heard in a major way as DeSantis outperforms the polls in state after state.
The GOP field will narrow
As the campaign progresses, the field will inevitably narrow. Some may even drop out by the end of this month, if not sooner. When that happens, do you think any of those voters are switching their allegiance to Donald Trump? Of course not. They are supporting a non-Trump candidate for a reason. They may not prefer DeSantis now, but there will come a point where the Florida governor - if he continues to run a solid second place - will become the only option to beat Trump. When that happens, it’s game over.
These, and more, are key reasons why an insurgent Ron DeSantis campaign could very well catch and defeat Donald Trump in the GOP primary. It's an uphill climb, but it's doable. If we want a Republican win in November 2024, we’d all best be hoping and praying that this is the way things play out. The stakes have never been higher.
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