The last week has been a masterclass in diplomacy for Donald Trump, not so much for Israel’s leadership.
I had been waiting all week for noon on Saturday. Donald Trump spoke several times quite forcefully about the need for Hamas to return all remaining hostages by that hour. He said no more twos and threes being released in these macabre proceedings; instead, they all have to come out and he gave it a hard stop for high noon on Saturday. The public sequence of events would appear to have been as follows:
*Hamas accused Israel of ceasefire violations and said that it would not release captives as agreed on Saturday.
*Donald Trump made a very pointed demand from the Oval Office that all hostages must be released by noon, Saturday or "all hell will break loose".
*Israel’s cabinet adopted Trump’s position and states that all hostages must be released or the war would return in full force.
*Hamas said, like nothing happened, that it will release three hostages and keep to the signed agreements.
*Israel agreed with Hamas to stay on the program, and one of the greatest opportunities in recent international politics was lost.
Three hostages were released Saturday. At noon, we were enjoying a family meal together and did not know if anything unusual had happened. I kind of had an inkling that Israel was not serious about letting all hell or anything else break loose. I spoke with a friend who has spent most of the past 18 months of his life in Gaza. I inquired to know if he had been sent back to the area outside of the Strip. He said that he hadn’t, so I knew that there was no great mobilization to either frighten Hamas or actually go back to fighting in earnest.
Donald Trump’s actions and words were a master-class in realpolitik. He made a specific demand, one that Hamas would almost never accept. He made it clear that he would support Israel either going back to war or falling back into the ceasefire agreement. Israel opted for the latter. In a most pathetic move, Israel had each of its hundreds of Palestinian murderers released Saturday wear a shirt that said in Arabic, “We will not forgive or forget.” How about “We will turn Gaza into wasteland and your next visit with us is with the undertaker”? The released terrorists burned the shirts upon reaching their final destinations.
So what happened? Why didn’t Israel take this “Get Out of International Trouble” card that Trump so generously offered? It’s a long story that goes back a while. Ehud Olmert became prime minister when Ariel Sharon became incapacitated. Both Sharon and Olmert had been considered staunch right-wingers but changed their tune when they bolted from the Likud and used their time in Kadimah (Forward) to throw the Jews out of Gaza and northern Samaria. Olmert gave a speech during the period of his leadership in which he said that Israelis “were tired of winning”. Israel certainly had won a lot: the victories in the founding, the Six Day War, the painful but successful comeback in the Yom Kippur War, the destruction of the Iraqi reactor, etc. What the Israelis wanted, claimed Olmert, was peace rather than more winning. The problem for Olmert as it is for his nemesis, Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, is that the other side does not want peace in any format. They want Israel destroyed and the Jews dead. There, I summarized the entire Hamas Charter in one sentence. The rest is decorative.
What Trump offered Bibi was military and diplomatic cover to destroy Hamas. I don’t think that he was threatening just to get Hamas back to the program; I believe that he used Hamas’ deviation from the schedule as a basis for finally destroying what should have been destroyed over a year ago. But Bibi is like the driver who spends his whole time looking in the rearview mirror. Of course, he will crash into something in front of him. If he cuts off electricity, the UN will sanction Israel. If he stops the “humanitarian” aid, Egyptian tanks will come over the border. If he pummels the Palestinians without all of the warnings, the Europeans will send an armada to fight Israel. Trump offered complete diplomatic and military cover—if Israel was willing to fight with the intent to destroy Hamas. Instead, the Israeli government acted like the battered wife and agreed to get back on the ceasefire bandwagon and not take the opportunity of a lifetime to destroy Hamas and the Palestinian dream of wiping Israel off of the map.
When we were discussing these issues around our Sabbath table, one of our boys made the most important point: we are all guilty, because the politicians we have are the product of our voting. I pointed out that as a permanent resident, I cannot vote in national elections. He blamed me for not contributing my vote, but I still remain a proud American. The point he made is true. The ones who have been the most vociferous in destroying Hamas and not feeding and moving them around have small representations in the Knesset. Itamar Ben-Gvir, who quit the government with the signing of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas, has more kids than members in Israel’s parliament. The people voted for representatives who, like Olmert, are tired of winning. They should have channeled the righteous fury of the days after the mass murder in the south to galvanize the people for the complete destruction of Hamas and Palestinian dreams of destroying Israel. Instead of fighting Hamas, they fought the Hague: they warned people to get out of various buildings, told them where to go to be safe, and provided food, water, and electricity so that they would be warm, well-rested and fed before the next attack. Israel never planned to wipe out Hamas. They planned to fight and then call it a day. Like the Vietcong, Hamas does not care about how many died or what their flattened towns looked like. The Yankees and Israelis had enough and stopped fighting. So tell me who won?
Israel is very good at building memorials but sometimes less successful at preventing the need for them. Donald Trump gave Bibi carte blanche to wipe out the jihadi threat from the south. Bibi took a pass. Will he do the same with terror funders Iran and Qatar? Or an Islamist Turkey? Can Israel afford so many missed opportunities? I am sure that there are many things not known publicly, but on the face of it, Israel chose to follow Hamas rather than destroy it.
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