The midterm elections tend to be tricky for a party in which the president is in power. We saw that with the 2018 midterms, and to a lesser degree for 2022. Although there was a lack of a red wave that year, Republicans did take back control of the House of Representatives and held onto their majority for 2024. With the 2026 midterms fast approaching, it's worth taking a look to examine the position House Republicans find themselves in, especially when Democrats are in such disarray and facing dire poll numbers.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) on Monday sent out a memo about polling in their battleground districts, which has them confident they can keep and even grow their majority when it comes to the midterm elections. That is based off of a survey from 46 Patriot and Frontline districts, which the memo indicates "confirms that the political landscape is significantly more favorable today than it was at this point in 2017, the last midterm election cycle under a Republican president."
Patriot districts are for House Republican incumbents the NRCC is working to defend. The Frontline districts are those seats held by vulnerable Democratic incumbents that that the NRCC's working to flip. The Frontline list was released last month, and includes the following members:
- (CA-09) Josh Harder
- (CA-13) Adam Gray
- (CA-27) George Whitesides
- (CA-45) Derek Tran
- (CA-47) Dave Min
- (FL-09) Darren Soto
- (FL-23) Jared Moskowitz
- (IN-01) Frank Mrvan
- (ME-02) Jared Golden
- (MI-08) Kristen McDonald Rivet
- (NC-01) Don Davis
- (NH-01) Chris Pappas, who will be running for U.S. Senate and thus leaving an open seat
- (NJ-09) Nellie Pou
- (NM-02) Gabe Vasquez
- (NV-01) Dina Titus
- (NV-03) Susie Lee
- (NV-04) Steven Horsford
- (NY-03) Tom Suozzi
- (NY-04) Laura Gillen
- (NY-19) Josh Riley
- (OH-09) Marcy Kaptur
- (OH-13) Emilia Sykes
- (TX-28) Henry Cuellar
- (TX-34) Vicente Gonzalez
- (VA-07) Eugene Vindman
- (WA-03) Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Many of these Democrats on the list recently flipped seats once held by Republicans, or won reelection by narrow margins and are thus seen as worth targeting. While there's still many months to go, this list lines up pretty well with the Cook Political Report (CPR)'s list for 2026 when it comes to Democrats who are on their list of Democratic races.
Reps. Darren Soto (FL-09) is likely the safest Democratic member, going by CPR, and even then, the 2025 Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) still only has his seat at a D+4 rating.
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The poll memo also further highlights a strong contrast between 2025 and 2017. "Unlike in 2017, voters today are turning away from Democrats’ failed leadership and are rallying behind Republican solutions on the issues that matter most. With a unified message, a powerful fundraising edge, and a strong political foundation already in place, House Republicans are poised to retain and grow our majority in 2026," the memo made clear.
This comes up still even later in the poll's memo, with a link back to RealClearPolitics (RCP), which shows that Democrats had a D+6 advantage at this point in 2017, leading up to the 2018 midterm election.
"Republicans are entering this cycle from a position of strength and in a much better place today than in 2017. Democrats hold a narrow 1 point (D+1) lead, unchanged since the end of the 2024 election, when Republicans not only protected our majority but flipped 5 key battleground seats. By comparison, Democrats held a D+6 advantage at this point in 2017. In the 13 Trump-won districts currently held by Democrats, the generic ballot is R+2, a strong indicator of Republican momentum," the memo shared.
In 2024, the House seats Republicans flipped included now Rep. Nick Begich, who defeated Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska's At-Large District. Now Reps. Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie also beat Democratic incumbents in Pennsylvania's 8th and 7th Congressional Districts, respectively. Now Rep. Gabe Evans also defeated Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in Colorado's 8th Congressional District. There was also an open race in Michigan's 7th Congressional District, where now Rep. Tom Barrett beat his Democratic opponent in a race for a seat once held by former Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who now serves in the U.S. Senate.
The memo also includes some key highlights, which look even better for Republicans come 2026. Again, that has to do with how poorly Democrats themselves are doing. "The Democrat Party’s image is in free-fall, falling underwater by nearly 50 points (25% favorable/72% unfavorable), as voters overwhelmingly reject their extreme and out of touch agenda," one part of the memo highlighted. While this may be an NRCC poll, it's worth reminding that plenty of other polls have shown the Democratic Party with such numbers, which are record lows.
Earlier this year, for instance, Quinnipiac University put out two polls showing record lows for Democrats among voters, including one showing the Democratic Party with just a 31 percent approval rating, and another showing how Democrats in Congress have just a 21 percent approval rating.
Then, as we've also covered, there's polling from CNN, which shows Democrats with a 29 percent favorable rating, and another poll from NBC News, which shows the party with a 27 percent positive rating.
Not only is there bad news for Democrats, but good news for Republicans as well. "On the critical question of who 'cares about people like me,' Republicans have completely closed the gap. The two parties are now tied 47%-47%, a 13-point improvement from 2017, when Democrats led by 13 points. In the 13 Trump-won Democrat-held districts, Republicans lead by 8 points on this key measure," the memo also highlighted.
This change certainly caught CNN's Harry Enten's interest when he highlighted those numbers on air earlier this month.
A shocker for me given the tariff war: The GOP seems to be in their best position ever for the party who cares more for the needs of people like yourself.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 11, 2025
A tie on a metric that Dems have historically led by double digits.
The reason? Huge GOP gains among the working class. pic.twitter.com/BItuHBd2rM
The memo also highlights key issues such as immigration, government spending, and economic confidence. Immigration still remains Trump's best issue, and certainly helped him and other Republicans during the 2024 election.
As the memo highlights:
● Immigration: President Trump has a commanding 56%-43% advantage on immigration, demonstrating broad support for the Republican-led border security efforts.
● Government Spending: A clear majority (53%) believe government spending is wasteful and inefficient, validating Republicans’ push for fiscal responsibility and eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse. In the 13 Trump-won Democrat-held districts, agreement rises to +13%.
● Economic Confidence: 55% of voters rate their personal finances as “excellent” or“good,” giving clear evidence that Americans feel secure under President Trump andRepublican economic leadership.
The "Bottom Line" of the memo exudes confidence as well heading into the 2026 midterms, with a focus on Trump's "America First" priorities:
The House battleground environment presents a clear path to victory in the midterms forRepublicans. Unlike 2017, this poll demonstrates that House Republicans are not just on offense and starting the cycle on a strong footing to grow our majority; Republicans are leading the charge and setting the terms of the fight.
Swing-district Republicans nearly doubled House Democrats’ most vulnerable members in Q1 fundraising, the NRCC is shattering fundraising records, the map is trending Republicans’ way, voters are rejecting the Democrats’ radical policies while embracing Republican leadership on key issues, and House Democrats are spiraling out of control while the far left radicals are eating their own.
The battle for the majority will be hard-fought across individual battleground districts, but House Republicans are well-prepared, well-resourced, and on a clear path to not only retain the majority but grow it in 2026 as we continue delivering on the America First agenda.
A statement from NRCC Spokesman Mike Marinella, which focused on the first 100 days of Trump's second term, also focused on building "momentum" for the 2026 midterms. "If the first 100 days have proved anything, it's that House Republicans are fighting for the American people while Democrats are fighting amongst themselves. The map is shifting. The momentum is real. And House Republicans are poised to grow our majority in 2026," he said.
The NRCC survey was conducted April 13-18 with 1,000 likely voters. The margin of error for the full sample was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
We still have months to go before the 2026 midterms, approximately 18 months, and there's plenty of time for Democrats to improve, though as things currently stand, they look to be making it even worse on themselves if anything. Perhaps we're entering a new era where the president's party actually does all right come the midterms.
