Not long after he won a second term last November, President Donald Trump began announcing members to serve in his administration. Among them included many House members, which was something tricky given that Republicans have such a narrow majority in the chamber. Fortunately, these now former and soon to be former members come from very red districts, so the chances are quite high that they'll be replaced by a fellow Republican. And yet, the DNC doesn't seem to have quite gotten that message.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is still serving in Congress, though she'll likely be confirmed soon as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Yes, she's from a blue state, but her district itself, the 21st upstate New York is now pretty red, and she won reelection by a margin of 24 points. Further, the Democrat looking to replace her, dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, has his own issues.
Former Republican Reps. Michael Waltz and Matt Gaetz, both from Florida, have already resigned, with Gaetz making such an announcement last November, when he was initially nominated to be Trump's attorney general, though he quickly withdrew his name from consideration. They represented the state's 6th and 1st Congressional Districts, respectively. Waltz won by a margin of 33 points last November, while Gaetz similarly won by a margin of 32 points.
Filling Waltz's seat will come down to Democrat Josh Weil or Republican state Sen. Randy Fine, while Gatez will be replaced by Democrat Gay Valimont or Republican Jimmy Patronis, who is is the state’s chief financial officer. Trump has endorsed both Fine and Patronis.
Like we said, these seats are almost certainly going to have another Republican member. Trump likely thought of that when he tapped the three to serve in his administration. And yet the DNC is still unwisely investing in such races, with Florida making headlines this week, especially earlier on Friday.
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Punchbowl also covered such news on Thursday morning, in the context of an overall House majority when it comes to the 2026 midterms:
The Trump factor: We’re confident that barring a major shock, the 2026 midterms – naturally – will be a referendum on Trump. But Trump is in a drastically different political position than at the same point in his first term.
For starters, Trump won the popular vote in 2024. Trump’s electoral success came on the heels of significant rightward shifts from young voters, Hispanic and Asian voters. While pulling off a stunning political comeback, Trump may have kicked off a major realignment in American voting behavior.
But the 2026 midterms will prove a massive test of whether these new converts to the GOP will turn out in an election without Trump on the ballot. The new bedrock of the Democratic base — well-off, college-educated white voters — loves voting in special elections and midterms. With Trump riling up the base, Democrats are so engaged that they’ve dumped more than $9 million into a longshot House special election in an R+14 Florida seat.
It's curious that Trump is mentioned in the context of Florida and how he has "engaged" Democrats in these races. Trump won Florida in 2016, 2020, and 2024. He won in 2016 with something of a small margin, but Florida was still considered something of a swing state then. His margins grew, as he went from winning with 49 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 47.8 percent in 2016, to winning the state in 2020 with 51.2 percent to Joe Biden's 47.9 percent, and then winning the state last November with 56.1 percent of the vote to Kamala Harris' 43 percent.
Florida counts its votes early in the evening too, having learned lessons from the 2000 election, where confusion over who won Florida's then 25 electoral votes leading to a recount and involving the U.S. Supreme Court. While the rest of the country may have had some issues with a red wave that never really materialized, it certainly did in Florida for 2022, with Gov. Ron DeSantis winning reelection by close to 20 points and then Sen. Marco Rubio, now Trump's secretary of state, similarly winning reelection by over 16 points.
The red wave taking place in Florida for 2022 and also 2024 is hardly surprising, given how early voting actually favored Republicans in 2022, when it normally favors Democrats, and how Republican voters in the state were outperforming Democratic ones, with impressive voter registrations.
Trump is now also a residence of the Sunshine State, which helps him even more there. Granted, Trump can't run for president again, not unless the Constitution is amended to allow him to do so, but his influence may still matter. Further, Democrats are mentioned as the ones reportedly making the race about him, even in a race that Punchbowl makes clear is "a longshot..."
When it comes to the counties in the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, Trump saw some of his best wins in the state.
Democrats laughably thought they could gin up support for Harris in Florida based on constitutional amendments supporting abortion and legalized marijuana, as we covered last September. Given that the state requires over 60 percent support for an amendment to pass, they both failed, and Harris lost there by double digits.
Nikki Fried, ran against DeSantis in 2022 but lost the primary to former Gov. Charlie Crist, a Republican turned Independent turned Democrat, is now serving as the state DNC chairwoman. She's gone after Trump and Elon Musk from her X account, while the Florida Democrats' account has been mentioning the special elections with posts and reposts, especially as early voting starts on Saturday.
🚨ATTENTION
— Florida Democrats (@FlaDems) March 21, 2025
Early voting begins tomorrow in CD-1 and CD-6 for Florida’s special elections! Visit https://t.co/F3PfiYRKlZ to find your early voting location and hours.
Questions? Call our Voter Assistance Hotline on 833-VOTE-FLA / 833- 868-3352. pic.twitter.com/coh5i1Qx6M
NEW: We’re investing in Florida organizing efforts ahead of the April 1 special elections.
— Democrats (@TheDemocrats) March 21, 2025
In addition to helping the @FlaDems mobilize volunteers on the ground, this funding will be used to launch a voter protection program—deploying 200 poll watchers and greeters to ensure…
12 days until the April 1 special elections in Florida.
— Gay Valimont for Congress (@gayforcongress) March 20, 2025
We're knocking on thousands of doors a day to remind folks that Florida's 1st District has a chance to have a true fighter in Congress and #VoteValimont.
We're doing the work. Want to help pitch in? https://t.co/pgIIDyux6e
Especially when it comes to the repost of Valimont's account, the Florida Democrats actually seem to believe that they have a chance of winning one or both of these races.
The DNC and DNC Chairman Ken Martin are also involved in the races, as The Hill reported:
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) announced an investment in two April special House races in Florida on Thursday.
The Hill was the first outlet to learn of the investment, which according to the DNC will allow the Florida Democratic Party to bring in “additional full-time organizing capacity to mobilize voters and volunteers on the ground” in the state’s first and sixth congressional districts.
The investment will also cover the rollout of a voter protection program in the two districts, which will include more than 200 poll watchers and greeters to be deployed on Election Day. The DNC did not provide a specific dollar amount for the investment.
Florida has become a red state over the past decade, making the DNC investment more notable. President Trump carried the state by 13 points in November.
“I ran for DNC Chair on a platform to compete in elections everywhere — in all 57 states and territories and across all 3,244 counties,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said in a statement.
“This investment into the Florida congressional special elections is exactly the type of work we must do to build power on the ground and make clear to voters that there are no off years when the stakes for the American people are so high,” he continued.
Despite The Hill referencing how much of an uphill battle these special elections for Democrats will be, the Florida Democrats X account still reposted a post sharing such coverage.
The Washington Post reported that the Democratic candidates have raised $16 million. More power to them if they want to put that money to waste and end up not winning.
