Could This Key Senate Race Help Turn Georgia Red Again?

Not only do Kemp and Trump's wins spell potential bad news for Ossoff--and Kemp is particularly relevant here--but a poll between Ossoff and a generic Republican could as well. 

According to a Cygnal poll, the Democratic incumbent is tied with a generic Republican at 44 percent. One name that's been floated around is Kemp. And, while Ossoff has a seemingly impressive +12 above water favorable/unfavorable rating of 46-34 percent, the governor's is even better, at +20, as his favorable/unfavorable rating is at 56-36 percent. A majority--rather than a plurality, in Ossoff's case--having a favorable rating of Kemp. 

When it comes to Ossoff having a favorable rating, the Cygnal poll's key takeaways make it a point to bring up that Ossoff is only tied against a generic Republican. 

Ossoff does have a slight lead on one question, which could be where the incumbency advantage comes in, with the question of, "Do you believe Jon Ossoff deserves to be re-elected as your representative in the U.S. Senate, or is it time for someone new?" Forty-three percent chose Ossoff, as opposed to the 40 percent who chose someone new. A not insignificant 17 percent say they are undecided. And this is only a "slight" lead, as the poll takeaways mention. 

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📊 GEORGIA Poll by @cygnal (A)

2026 GA Senate
Jon Ossoff (D-inc): 44%
Generic Republican: 44%

Ossoff leads a generic Republican 49-23 among independents and 36-27 with swing voters.
——
Fav-unfav
Gov. Kemp: 56-36 (+20)
Sen. Ossoff: 46-34 (+12)
Pres. Trump: 48-49 (-1)
——…

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 12, 2025

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution in reporting on the poll also raised another damning issue for Ossoff, and the Democratic Party in general when it comes to their losing position, and that of Democratic commentators, as well as their allies in the mainstream media on this 80/20 issue. "Vote to block transgender bill could hurt Jon Ossoff, new poll finds," read the headline. Sure enough, the very first of one of the key takeaways of that poll, with original emphasis, read, "Jon Ossoff’s 2026 re-elect is in trouble after his disastrous vote to allow men to compete in women’s sports."

The poll's takeaways further highlight an issue [with original emphasis]:

When voters hear about Ossoff’s vote to allow men claiming to be women to participate in women’s sports, ”a Republican candidate” takes a MASSIVE 14-point lead (52-38).

• Women of all ages shift 11-points toward a Republican challenger.

• Men under the age of 55 crater for Ossoff and move the ballot 26 points among the group.

• Even college-educated females leave Ossoff by 5% and head to a Republican by 3%.

• Swing voters have a titanic shift of 44% to a Republican.

"Jon Ossoff voted to allow men to play in women’s sports if they claim to identify as a woman, taking away opportunities from our girls," respondents were told. "Now knowing this...if the general election for United States Senate was held today, and you had to choose, who would you vote for?" In response to such a question, Ossoff's response dropped to 38 percent, while the generic Republican's support increased to just over 52 percent. Close to 10 percent are undecided. 

The poll's takeaways also pointed to how this court hurt Ossoff with those undecided voters [with original emphasis]:

Machine-learning Segmentation Analysis identified a GOP Base (44%), DEM Base (39%), and Undecideds (17%).

• Undecideds are heavily economic-focused and obviously mostly undecided on the generic U.S. Senate ballot, though they support a Democrat 21-36. These voters are younger and like Governor Brian Kemp. Though with Ossoff at 32% on the initial ballot, once they learn about his position on men in women’s sports, his support drops to 16% as ”a Republican candidate” spikes to 49% (from 13%).

The poll was conducted March 9-10 with 600 likely Georgia voters for 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 percentage points. 

Sure enough, last Monday, Ossoff joined all of his fellow Democrats to vote against protecting girls' and women's sports, despite how Americans, including Democrats, support the issue. House Democratic women even dared to show up the next evening to Trump's speech before a joint session of Congress wearing all pink, to supposedly support women, even after their Democratic colleagues in the Senate had just voted against the bill, and all of these women had voted against the bill in the House back in January. 

Ossoff's votes on supporting Israel are also likely to come back to haunt him. Last November, as we covered at the time, he was one of just a handful of Democrats who voted with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on one of his several bills going after our ally in the Middle East. Ossoff's overall lack of support for Israel even received the attention of The New York Times last month. State Rep. Esther Panitch, a Jewish Democrat, was also mentioned in the piece as a Democrat who would consider voting for Kemp if he were the Republican nominee.

Congressional Democrats have also shown a shocking amount of support for the foreign-born Mahmoud Khalil, who was in charge of a pro-Hamas encampment at Columbia University last year, and also recently participated in pro-Hamas activity at its sister school of Barnard College. The Trump administration is looking to have him deported. The Senate Judiciary Democrats have been particularly supportive of Khalil over X, and yet dared to claim that they were the ones dedicated to fighting antisemitism.

Such posts did not sit too well with Panitch, who put out a profanity-laced quoted repost of the Senate Judiciary Democrats when it comes to their claim about who is standing up for Jewish students. 

Delete your account. https://t.co/QLR9qPiXMT

— Rep. Esther Panitch (@epanitch) March 10, 2025

Don't fucking gaslight us. Jews have been begging for help on campuses since Oct 8, which fell on your deaf ears. #gapol https://t.co/CMbxJejoN5

— Rep. Esther Panitch (@epanitch) March 10, 2025

Ossoff was previously part of the Senate Judiciary Committee, but left before the start of this 119th Congress.

Kemp would be a formidable opponent. He ran and won against Abrams both times, and increased his margin in 2022. He also beat former Sen. David Perdue, whom Ossoff defeated in a runoff held shortly after the 2020 election, by over 50 points in the Republican primary that year. Especially with those favorable numbers of Kemp, and Ossoff's own issues, Ossoff may be a particularly vulnerable Democratic incumbent. Trump and Kemp also joined forces last year to help make it that much easier for the president to win the Peach State once more after doing so in 2016 but not 2020. Trump won all seven swing states, and won Georgia by 2.7 percentage points against Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Georgia's other Democratic senator, Raphael Warnock, was reelected in 2022, and is up for reelection in 2028, potentially putting the state once more in play yet again. He defeated Herschel Walker in a runoff, and Walker has since been named as Trump's ambassador to the Bahamas. Perdue was nominated as ambassador to China, and former Sen. Kelly Loeffler, the Republican whom Warnock defeated in that runoff not long after the 2020 election, was confirmed to serve as the Small Business Administrator for Trump's second term. 

This Georgia U.S. Senate race isn't the only one to watch. In late January, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan announced he was retiring, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced earlier on Thursday that he will not run for that seat, despite much chatter about his future plans. He won't run for governor of Michigan, either, and may actually run for president again in 2028. On Wednesday, another Democrat, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, also announced she was not seeking reelection, putting this state further in play. The NRSC had regarded Shaheen as another top vulnerable incumbent they were targeting, along with Ossoff, especially for their votes against protecting girls' and women's sports.

🚨 Vulnerable '26 incumbent Senators Jon @ossoff and @JeanneShaheen just voted AGAINST banning men from women's sports.

Vote. Them. Out. pic.twitter.com/CjgyiaCls5

— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) March 4, 2025