When she was elected to serve her first full term in November 2022, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) didn't exactly win by impressive margins. She was still favored to win, given how blue New York has become, but former Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin made the race particularly close and certainly gave her a run for her money. With Hochul up for reelection in 2026, does she have a chance?
The latest Siena College poll, released earlier on Tuesday, does not have good news for Hochul. The poll's headline stresses as much, stating, "Hochul Job Approval & Favorability Ratings Up a Little, Remain Negative; Only 33% of Voters Would Re-Elect Hochul, 57% Want 'Someone Else.'"
Not only does the poll show that 33% of New York voters would vote to reelect Hochul as opposed to preferring someone else, but not even a majority of her fellow Democrats would reelect her. A plurality, 48 percent, would, while 40 percent say they would pick someone else. Not surprisingly, by 12-85 percent, Republicans would reelect Hochul, though her numbers are terrible with Independents as well, given that they'd reelect her by 22-65 percent, as opposed to preferring someone else.
There is no demographic where a majority say they would reelect Hochul. In addition to a plurality of Democrats saying so, a plurality of liberals (46-44 percent) and black voters (49-34 percent), say they'd reelect her over preferring someone else.
There's plenty of more bad news for Hochul from there. As the headline also notes, her approval and favorability ratings have not been so great. "Governor Kathy Hochul has a negative 39-49% favorability rating, up a little from 36-51% in October (then among likely voters), and her job approval rating also got a bump to 46-49%, up from 41-51%, according to a Siena College poll of New York State registered voters released today," the poll write-up mentions.
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Even where Hochul has her best numbers, she's still not looking so hot. Her fellow Democrats give her a 65 percent approval rating, as do 54 percent of women, 65 percent of liberals, 52 percent of Latinos, 51 percent of those over 55, and 54 percent of Protestants. Her highest approval rating is among black voters, with 69 percent approving of the job she's doing as governor.
Her favorable ratings are even worse, given that just 55 percent of her fellow Democrats have a favorable view of her. The only other demographics where a majority have a favorable view of her include 57 percent of liberals and 62 percent of black voters.
"There’s some good news for the Governor. Her favorability rating improved for the second consecutive poll, going from net -20 points in September, to now net -10 points, 39-49%. Her job approval rating is also up, now near breakeven, 46-49%, up net seven points since the last poll in October," Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said about the findings. "The bad news is that both ratings remain stubbornly underwater. Hochul has not had a positive favorability rating since January of this year and she has never had 50% or more voters view her favorably."
And there's even more bad news for Hochul. The governor and the state legislature have been in the news for her move to reinstate the congestion pricing plan in Manhattan, which has wide opposition.
As the poll mentions, "In June, Governor Hochul put a $15 congestion pricing toll plan for Manhattan on hold. Last month, after the election, Governor Hochul reinstituted a $9 congestion pricing plan, set to begin in January." Voters were asked if they supported or opposed such a plan.
Overall, voters oppose the plan by 51-29 percent. A plurality or a majority of every single demographic opposes such a plan. The most "supportive" of the congestion pricing include 40 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of liberals. Even black voters, who are normally supportive of the governor, oppose such a plan by 54-28 percent.
"There is essentially no group of New Yorkers that support the Governor’s reinstituted $9 congestion pricing plan for Manhattan. Democrats come close to break even, with opponents edging out supporters 42-40%. It’s opposed by City voters nearly two-to-one and downstate suburbanites better than two-to-one," Greenberg said. "There is very little racial or gender divide on congestion pricing."
There's also a section on what issues voters care about, and affordability, in one of the most expensive states in the country, tops the list:
“Elected officials might want to listen when more than two-thirds of voters – including 77% of Democrats, 72% of independents and 60% of Republicans – tell them that the cost of living is one of their top two priorities for the coming legislative session. And 43% said it was the top priority,” Greenberg said. “Nearly half of voters said the availability of affordable housing should be one of the top two issues.
“Crime and the influx of migrants were both top two priorities for more than one-third of voters,” Greenberg said. Only 22% of Democrats and 36% of independents said that the influx of migrants should be a top two issue, while 60% of Republicans said it should be a top two priority, tying with cost of living for the lead among Republicans.
“Voters also say that they haven’t seen progress on those issues. In fact, 54% of voters say that crime has gotten worse in New York State over the last year. Fifty-four percent also say the migrant influx has gotten worse, while 68% say the availability of affordable housing has gotten worse in the last year. And a whopping 76% of New Yorkers – three-quarters – say the cost of living has gotten worse,” Greenberg said.
Yet again, such findings don't bring much good news to Hochul, especially regarding a lack of progress. It's no wonder, then, that the poll's first few questions find that voters don't like the direction that New York is going.
Fifty percent of overall voters say New York is headed "in the wrong direction," with a plurality or majority of most demographics indicating as much. By 68-27 percent, voters overall have a negative view of "the fiscal condition" of New York.
The poll also looks to issues for when President-elect Donald Trump takes office next month. Although Vice President Kamala Harris did win the state, which has voted for the Democratic candidate every year since 1988, she did so with much less support than President Joe Biden did in 2020.
Voters were asked, "When it comes to any efforts the Trump Administration will take to deport migrants living illegally in New York, do you think New York State should support or oppose the federal government's efforts to deport migrants?" By 54-35 percent, voters want New York to support the federal government. Democrats and liberals are the only demographic where a majority say they want to oppose the federal government.
With these findings, Democratic New York State Senator Liz Krueger's plans for New York to withhold taxes from the federal government and secede to join Canada, along with other states in the region to become a southwest province, are looking even more ridiculous.
The answer for New Yorkers seems to be finding a better Democratic alternative, given that by 52-34 percent, New Yorkers still say that they'd prefer a Democratic governor over a Republican one, "All things being equal." Then again, if that's the case, New Yorkers may be stuck in a problem of their own making as they keep electing and reelecting politicians they're not too fond of, all because they have a D next to their name.
Who might be the options for 2026? The poll asks about figures such as Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado, Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres, and Republican Rep. Mike Lawler. As is mentioned in the Odds & Ends section:
- Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado has a 17-15% favorability rating (68% don’t know him or have no opinion), little changed from 17-18% in January. Rep. Ritchie Torres has a 19-13-68% favorability rating and Rep. Mike Lawler has a 17-20-64% favorability rating, both in their first statewide Siena College poll.
The poll of 834 registered New York State voters was conducted December 2-5, 2024, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
