With less than three weeks away until the November elections, Democrats are scrambling. This doesn't just apply to the top of the ticket, though Vice President Kamala Harris is certainly in trouble, but to down-ballot races as well. We've been covering how Republicans' chances are looking increasingly better when it comes to taking back control of the Senate, and targeted seats that are feasible but could still be tricky are becoming even closer as Election Day approaches.
This perhaps applies to no other race more so than Pennsylvania, where Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is running against Republican Dave McCormick. Many Democrats, including vulnerable incumbents running for reelection, skipped the DNC in August, but not Casey. He even spoke one night to promote Harris' campaign. Now, two months later, he's completely changed his tune. On Monday, he didn't appear at a rally in Erie with Harris, which didn't go unnoticed. Now, he's featuring former and potentially future President Donald Trump in his ads.
Clips and screenshots of Casey's ad declaring, "CASEY SUPPORTS TRUMP'S TRADE ORDER," have been circulating on X on Friday. The ad includes images of then-President Trump with NAFTA and tariffs on China. The ad also tries to distance Casey from President Joe Biden over natural gas exports.
The McCormick War Room X account reposted a screenshot of the ad.
Bob Casey thinks Donald Trump is going to win Pennsylvania.
— Tim Murtaugh (@TimMurtaugh) October 18, 2024
That’s the only way to explain Casey’s new ad, which ALIGNS HIM WITH TRUMP.
He bucks Biden by name, and does not mention Kamala Harris at all.
An endangered Dem is RUNNING AWAY FROM HARRIS AND WITH TRUMP.
Just huge. pic.twitter.com/AZfcVeM02E
Let’s check in on Democrat Senate candidates in the blue wall states:
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 18, 2024
Baldwin (WI): Putting Trump in her ads
Casey (PA): Putting Trump in his ads
Slotkin (MI): Making ads against EV mandates.
They wouldn’t be doing this if they thought Kamala was winning. pic.twitter.com/yN1LZTFjXJ
Leftist Pennsylvania Senator @Bob_Casey is currently running a TV ad trying to tie himself to Trump. Notice that he's not running any ads tying himself to Kamala Harris or mentioning that he votes with her 100% of the time. You only run this ad if you think Trump is winning PA! pic.twitter.com/WMAgSYxP9T
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) October 18, 2024
As much as Casey may be looking to cozy up to Trump and distance himself from Biden, Harris, and their unpopular administration, that doesn't tell the whole story about how he's served as a senator.
McCormick has been hammering Casey for voting with Biden 98.5 percent of the time. When Biden was forced out of the race by his fellow Democrats, McCormick kept going after Casey by tying him to Harris and her far-left views, including and especially on banning fracking. He recently highlighted Casey's support for the Iran deal, when Israel was attacked by Iran last month.
The pinned post for the McCormick War Room X account also addresses the liberal voting record Casey has had for the 18 years he's been in office.
— McCormick War Room (@TeamMcCormickPA) October 3, 2024
Don't just take McCormick's word for it regarding Casey's far-left record. Casey's own X account thanks and touts support from fellow Democrats, including radical leftist Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas.
The McCormick War Room X account was all too happy to remind people Crockett wants to defund the police.
Thank you for coming out to Pennsylvania and lending a hand to my campaign @JasmineForUS.
— Bob Casey Jr. (@Bob_Casey) October 18, 2024
I look forward to seeing you back in Congress. https://t.co/CuJv1AGZFI
Here is Defund the Police activist Jasmine Crockett in 2021:
— McCormick War Room (@TeamMcCormickPA) October 18, 2024
"The Defund movement seeks to actually bring about healing... Defund is about finally being smart on crime." https://t.co/N7qRk3z603 pic.twitter.com/qQMiFwrTYy
Casey also touted an endorsement from a pro-abortion group, Reproductive Freedom for All. The senator was once a pro-life Democrat and first ran as one.
The senator's father, Bob Casey Sr., was known for being a pro-life Democrat. His name appears in the 1992 case of Planned Parenthood v. Casey, which attempted to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Women’s rights are at stake in this election, from access to contraception to restoring Roe.
— Bob Casey Jr. (@Bob_Casey) October 17, 2024
Together, Reproductive Freedom for All and I will keep fighting to protect these rights for people across Pennsylvania and across the country. https://t.co/7E4ngLFLbX
Forecasters consider the race to be "Lean" or "Tilt Democratic," giving Casey only a slight edge. The polls are also all over the place, though RealClearPolling puts him at an average lead of +3.8, with Casey himself acknowledging that it will be a close race and that his own internals aren't as good as some polls where he's comfortably ahead of McCormick.
It's not merely Casey looking to align himself with Trump and/or distance himself from Biden and Harris. Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin is another vulnerable Democratic incumbent, running against Republican Eric Hovde.
Baldwin's ad praises both Trump and Biden in a new ad. However, as the Hovde War Room X account reminded, Baldwin has referred to the Republican nominee as "one of the most offensive, hateful, unacceptable presidential candidates we've ever had," also asking, "So, what does that say about the people who support him?!"
ANOTHER ONE: Radical leftist Tammy Baldwin is also tying herself to President Trump in her latest ad — without mentioning Kamala at all.
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 18, 2024
She knows Wisconsin is TRUMP COUNTRY! pic.twitter.com/GHyzPo0UCb
In this race, which Cook Political Report considers a "Toss-Up," Baldwin leads by just +2.7 over Hovde.
Then there's Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan, who is running against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Slotkin has warned that Harris isn't where she needs to be in Michigan. Matt just covered earlier on Friday how concerned state Democrats are there.
While Harris has flip-flopped on electric vehicle (EV) mandates, Slotkin has claimed in ads that she does not. On the debate stage and over X, Rogers has reminded that Slotkin voted for such mandates.
Slotkin voted THREE. TIMES. for the radical EV mandates that will crush Michigan’s auto industry. In the Senate, I’ll have the backs of our auto workers. #MISenateDebate pic.twitter.com/BhOQPa3yA5
— Mike Rogers (@MikeRogersForMI) October 14, 2024
It’s a day that end in y, which means Slotkin is lying.
— Mike Rogers (@MikeRogersForMI) October 8, 2024
Slotkin has voted in favor of an EV mandate THREE TIMES and is trying to cover up taking campaign contributions from registered Chinese foreign agents. She’s too radical for Michigan. pic.twitter.com/DgJBsclp5T
Cook Political Report also considers this race a "Toss-Up," with the polls tightening here at the top of the ticket as well as the down-ballot races. Slotkin only leads by +2.2 against Rogers.
The Trump-Vance campaign also shared an email from Jake Schneider, the rapid response director for Team Trump. The subject line highlights how "Democrats Throw Kamala Under The Bus" and stresses that "Democrats subtly knife Kamala as they see the writing on the wall."
As the email goes on to remind [Emphasis original]:
Swing state Democrats know what's coming in November. As they make their closing arguments to voters, embattled Democrat politicians are suddenly filled with praise for President Trump's record — and won't even mention Kamala Harris.
It's not exactly the behavior you'd expect from candidates who believe their nominee is winning.
- In Pennsylvania, leftist scumbag Bob Casey is boasting about President Trump's support for American workers.
- In Wisconsin, radical leftist Tammy Baldwin is tying herself to President Trump's Made in America agenda.
- In Ohio, Democrats are running an ad linking far-left shill Sherrod Brown to President Trump's successful border security.
- In Wisconsin, extremist Elissa Slotkin is trying to run against the disastrous Harris-Biden electric vehicle mandate.
They're all complete and total frauds. Each of them supported both impeachment hoaxes against President Trump and have voted to enable the toxic Harris-Biden agenda every step of the way.
They simply know what the rest of us do: President Donald J. Trump is the path to victory.
Voters know a phony when they see one — and much like Kamala, they'll be sent packing in November.
The email also mentions the Senate race out of Ohio, where vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is facing Republican Bernie Moreno in a true "Toss-Up" race. Polls also now show Moreno leading Brown.
Decision Desk HQ currently predicts that Republicans have a 72 percent chance of winning the chamber, while the chances for Republican candidates also rise.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are all "Toss-Up" states for the presidential race, and whoever wins those states could very well help the Senate candidates on the ballot with their coattails. Trump currently has an edge in all three of those races, and RCP awards all three to Trump with no "Toss-Up" races included. Casey, Baldwin, and Slotkin also have only slight, if any advantages, as mentioned above.
