With three weeks until the election, the presidential and key Senate races are continuing to tighten, even and including in key states where Vice President Kamala Harris might have the edge. Given its status as part of the rust belt and the blue wall, with President Joe Biden having won in 2020, Michigan was always going to likely be a tricky state for former and potentially future President Donald Trump. And yet the Republican nominee might have a chance there, and could, in fact, pull off a win, just as he did in 2016. The polls look to be helping him, but then again, so does the Democratic governor in her own way.
Other than 2016, the Democratic nominee for president has won Michigan every race going back to 1992. Not only did Trump pull off a win in 2016, but he has the ability to do it again, especially when RealClearPolling has him up by +0.9 against Harris. We covered last week how Michigan hasn't been looking so great for Harris, with Katie noting how polls showing Trump ahead even spell an "absolute nightmare" for her.
This doesn't look to be an outlier, but rather potentially a trend. RCP now includes a poll from Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP. In a head to head matchup with likely voters, Trump has an edge over Harris of of 49-48 percent, while they're tied at 46 percent in a full field.
📊 MICHIGAN poll by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) for AARP
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 15, 2024
2-WAY
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 48%
---
FULL FIELD
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Harris: 46%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
MI Senate
🟦 Slotkin: 49%
🟥 Rogers: 46%
——
#140 (1.7/3.0) | 600 LV | 10/2-8 | ±4%… pic.twitter.com/glOXeN0HW4
The poll also showed that Trump leads Harris by 47-46 percent and with Independents by 45-38 percent.
Trump had performed well previously over Harris, per the August poll. The comparison poll from August shows plenty of changes, including the following:
• Harris made substantial gains with the youngest and oldest voting cohorts, pulling into leads with 18–34-year-olds and voters 65+, while Trump now leads by double digits among voters 35-49 and 50-64.
• Trump pulled ahead among Independent voters by 7-points, while Harris fares slightly better with both partisan groups in October compared to August.
• Harris increased her lead among women voters (+13 to +19) and those with college degrees (+15 to +23).
• The competitive Caregivers 50+ group went from Harris leading by 9-points to Trump by 4.
A press release from AARP also highlights how competitive this poll shows the race to be:
The results show little movement from AARP’s last survey of Michigan voters in August — when 45 percent of voters said they’d support former President Trump and 43 percent backed Vice President Harris — and underscores how tight the race remains as the Nov. 5 election approaches. In the recent poll, Harris does well among women and those with college degrees. Trump dominates among men and voters without college educations.
...
“The race in Michigan couldn’t be closer,” says Jeff Liszt, a partner at Impact Research. “Everything in Michigan is just extremely competitive right now.”
Trump also fares better when it comes to his favorable ratings. He's just about even, as 48 percent of likely voters have a favorable view of him, while 49 percent have an unfavorable view. Harris' ratings are almost even, but not as much, with a 47-49 percent favorable/unfavorable rating.
The poll again references those coveted Independents, in that Trump is at +1 favorable ratings with the demographic, while Harris is at -14.
For all of the gender cap that we're hearing about, Harris is doing much worse with men compared to her positive numbers with women, at -23 and +16, respectively. Trump is at a -20 favorable rating with women, but he's at least at +21 with men.
The job approval ratings are even more favorable for Trump, as 50 percent of likely voters approve of the job he did as president, while 48 percent disapprove. This is a net approval of +5 from August for Trump. Meanwhile, Harris dropped by -7 from August, as just 43 percent approve of the job she's done as vice president. A majority, at 52 percent, disapprove of the job she's done.
As she should be, given that she's the sitting vice president, Harris may be hurt by President Joe Biden's unfavorable/favorable (41-55 percent) and disapproval/approval ratings (41-57 percent), as he's the least popular as the three.
The Senate race is looking tight as well, as are many others this cycle, with Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers running to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Some forecasters consider this race to be another one of the "Toss-Up" races.
Slotkin currently leads Rogers by 49-46 percent, while she had a lead of 47-44 percent back in August.
While Slotkin has more support from her fellow Democrats than Rogers does from Republicans, Independents play a role here. "Democrats are voting for Slotkin by an 89-point margin, with Rogers only winning Republicans by 82-points. However, Rogers leading Independents by 5-points helps him keep the race close," the poll noted.
The poll was conducted October 2-8, with 1,382 likely Michigan voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
RCP also shows Trump leading by +0.7 in all overall battleground states, while Harris only leads by +1.3 at the national level, which shows she is continuing to drop. Further, without any toss-ups, and with Michigan included as a win for Trump, he is on track to win the electoral college with 302 votes.
When it comes to other forecasters and poll rankings, 538 shows Harris ahead in Michigan, but also by slim margins, at only +0.7 over Trump.
Nate Silver, who on Monday referred to the race as "a pure toss-up," on Tuesday noted it is "now literally 50/50" for Tuesday's update.
Movement in favor of Trump in Michigan, as well as the equally key states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, was listed as the reason why.
"We’re just not seeing as many Harris +3 type numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as we did immediately after the debate. It hasn’t been a huge swing, but even a half point to a point makes a difference," Silver noted.
Michigan is down to just a D+1, per Silver, with an R+0.9 shift since last week, and an R+0.2 shift since last month.
There's been about 1 point of movement toward Trump in MI/WI/PA. Not much elsewhere. But that's enough to take things from 55/45 Harris to a pure 50/50.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2024
Trump is not only on track to win per Polymarket, but his chances as of earlier on Tuesday are a trending topic over X as well.
Trump has another record high chance of winning against Harris, with a 57.7 percent to her 41.9 percent chance. While Michigan is in the "Toss-Up" column, Trump still has a 54-46 percent chance over Harris there.
Trump's lead just set another record high against Harris.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 15, 2024
Trump 🟥 • 57.7% chance
Harris 🟦 • 41.9% chance pic.twitter.com/jYUO5Mg3WR
