Given that 2030 is still several years away, there's a big "if" here when it comes to if such trends continue. But, if they do in fact continue, bright blue states like New York, California, and Illinois all could lose congressional seats following the 2030 census. The Hill recently covered such a trend, citing analysis from the Brennan Center For Justice.
Should such trends continue, California would lose four of its 52 congressional districts, which would lose seats for only the second time. The Golden State, the most populous state in the country, lost a seat following the 2020 census. The state lost population for the first time in its history according to data from the 2020 census, under the governorship of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
New York would also lose three districts, Illinois would lose two, and Pennsylvania would lose one. The analysis, from Michael Li and and Gina Feliz, noted that it would mean "leaving all three states with congressional delegations half the size they were in 1940."
Such data about California is similar to analysis from Decision Desk HQ from April that has since been reshared and has predicted that California would lose up to five congressional seats.
People are fleeing blue states for the freedom in red southern states, or at least those that are purple. As the analysis mentioned:
Four booming southern states stand out in particular: Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. These rapidly growing states by themselves account for more than 90 percent of American population gains since the 2020 census, with Texas and Florida alone accounting for 70 percent of growth.
Based on the most recent trends, Texas would gain four seats and Florida three seats in the next reapportionment, placing Texas within striking distance of becoming the largest state, perhaps as early as 2040. Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee also would each gain a new congressional seat, as would three mountain states: Arizona, Idaho, and Utah.
That flies in the face of what we've been hearing about the political ramifications in those states, especially with Florida being such a red state now. This is true under the governorship of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, and although he's term-limited, with any hope Florida will remain such a free state for decades to come.
Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media have shrieked about so-called abortion and book bans, and far-left groups have even put out travel advisories when it comes to Florida. But that doesn't look to be affecting population trends in those states.
The Hill spoke further to Li, who offered the following takeaways:
The census has not released the latest figures on racial and ethnic population changes, but according to Michael Li, who authored the Brennan Center analysis, many of the people moving to the South are people of color.
Cost of living and housing prices, along with economic booms and investments in clean energy and manufacturing, may be driving a mass domestic migration to the South. And particularly migration to the suburbs — places that are light red, light blue or purple, and not as solidly Republican red or Democrat blue, Li added.
It appears people are looking for opportunity and moving where they can find it, which, Li said, “is a little bit paradoxical” because people expected a migration out of the South as many states adopt “reactionary policies,” such as abortion restrictions and gerrymandering.
“That doesn’t quite seem to have happened,” he added.
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It’s still early and depends on how much effort states will put into getting people to participate in the next census, Li noted. Still, one thing is clear: The South remains a popular place to reside.
“Barring something completely unforeseen, the 2020s are shaping up to be the South’s decade,” Li wrote in the analysis. “And that, in turn, will have major ramifications for fair representation and fair maps.”
Newsom and DeSantis both participated in "The Great Red vs. Blue State Debate" last month, where population trends did come up, although Newsom refused to answer questions multiple times, no matter how many chances moderator Sean Hannity gave him. It's been a hot topic between the two govenors even before then, though.
Not only did California lose population for the first time in its history in 2020, and keeps doing so, but Florida also became the fastest-growing state according to 2022 population estimates.
On December 22, days after the Brennan Center's analysis was published, The Los Angeles Times went with the headline of "California loses population for an unprecedented third year. It could cost state real clout."
And you better believe it that such trends could affect politics for years to come, though The Hill also noted that "Li argued that the big question right now is how the change in Southern populations will affect politics." Of course, as people from blue states move to red or purplish states, there's concerns that they'll bring their liberal policies with them, including when they show up to vote in their new states.
Those ramifications could happen at a national as well as state level. "These changes could also have an impact on the Electoral College," The Hill also noted.
While what's going on in California, the most populous state, is a big takeaway here, there's a notable significance when it comes to New York as well. The Empire State is not only losing population, but it's losing the most people, and has been doing so for three years in a row now. Former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) highlighted such a fact throughout last year's gubernatorial campaign.
It's no wonder that New York Democrats are looking to once more gerrymander their way to winning more seats come 2024, and the state's highest court just gave them the green light to do so. New maps will thus be drawn for next year, with the Democratically-controlled state legislature having the power to approve or redraw maps from a supposedly independent commission.
Courts threw out the particularly gerrymandered maps from 2022 and drew their own, thrusting state Democrats into chaos, with New York Democrats blaming their losses on the map, as if they themselves and their policies couldn't possibly be to blame. Although Zeldin lost to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY), he came particularly close to pulling off a win. Many New York Republicans in Congress have Zeldin to thank for winning their races. With the 2022 midterm election being more disappointing for Republicans than expected, the Republican Party overall has Zeldin to thank for Republicans winning back the majority in the House.
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