Nevada continues to looks to have the most important elections to watch at both the federal and statewide level, especially when it comes to particularly vulnerable Democratic incumbents facing re-election. Both the Senate races there between Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Adam Laxalt (R) as well as Gov. Steve Sisolak (D-NV) and Joe Lombardo (R) are considered "Toss-Up" races. Without a doubt, Cortez Masto and Sisolak need help, which isn't coming from President Joe Biden, who has claimed he'll campaign for Democrats with less than three weeks left before the November midterm elections.
That help, as Caroline Vakil with The Hill reported on Wednesday, comes from former President Barack Obama. His appearance at a rally in Southern Nevada, where Sisolak and Cortez Masto will speak, won't come until November 1, though, one week before the election, and will encourage people to vote early.
A report from Gabe Stern at the Associated Press has more on how Obama has been involved in the campaign in other ways:
RENO, Nev. (AP) — Former President Barack Obama plans to visit southern Nevada on Nov. 1 to rally for vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the state who are seeking to fend off a potential red wave.
Early voting will be a major focus of the visit that Nevada Democrats hope will inject enthusiasm into reelection efforts by Gov. Steve Sisolak, U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, as well as secretary of state candidate Cisco Aguilar’s campaign and two swing House races.
Sisolak and Cortez Masto plan to speak at the event.
Wednesday’s announcement came on the same day that Sisolak’s campaign released a video with the former president endorsing the governor.
“While some folks are trying to roll back voting rights and a woman’s right to choose, Steve has protected them in Nevada,” Obama said in the ad. “Steve Sisolak has been there for you. And now you need to be there for him.”
Both Vakil and Stern's reports mention a likely red wave, as well as how some Democrats have wanted to keep Biden at a distance given his unpopularity and potential to drag down candidates. Stern's report does mention Sisolak as having praised Biden.
"During a governor’s debate this month, Sisolak called Biden a 'very good' president and said that he inherited problems from Trump that he’s blamed for today. He said he had not asked Biden to campaign with him but said the president was 'welcome to come to the state of Nevada,'" Stern wrote.
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A Civiqs poll, last updated on October 19, shows that just 37 percent of registered voters in Nevada approve of Biden's job performance, while 57 percent disapprove. Nevada is also one of the 45 states mentioned in a Morning Consult poll released last week using third quarter data that has Biden underwater among voters.
Where Biden has campaigned in a handful of states, including in Pennsylvania early on Thursday, even friendly outlets like The New York Times are admitting he's been noticeably absent elsewhere. "With Crucial Elections Looming, Biden Breaks Tradition of Big Campaign Rallies," a headline from a Wednesday piece declared.
That piece, which involved multiple writers, begins by highlighting Obama's campaign appearances, drawing a comparison to Biden:
WASHINGTON — There is nothing quite like having a president at a big, boisterous campaign rally. And Democrats in four cities — Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee and Las Vegas — will get that chance this month, in the final days of voting that will decide who controls Congress, governors’ offices and statehouses.
But it won’t be President Biden. It will be former President Barack Obama.
Mr. Biden has not held a campaign rally since before Labor Day, even as the future of his agenda and his own political career are at stake in the midterm elections. His low profile on the campaign trail reflects his low approval rating, and White House officials say the president has made a point of delivering speeches on the party’s accomplishments, rather than taking part in rallies sponsored by political campaigns.
With less than three weeks until Election Day and polls suggesting Democratic enthusiasm is waning, Mr. Biden’s strategy is clear: He will help Democrats raise money and will continue to hopscotch the country talking about infrastructure, negotiated drug prices, student debt relief and investments in computer chip manufacturing. But his decision not to participate, so far at least, in rallies that are normally a staple of campaign season highlights how little the president can do to help his fellow Democrats, even with the megaphone of the Oval Office.
About Biden's campaign stop in Pennsylvania, the piece also makes a telling point:
Mr. Biden is by no means holing up in Washington. In the last week, he has gone to Colorado, California and Oregon. He heads to Philadelphia on Thursday to support John Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s Democratic candidate for the Senate — but there will be no crush of voters packed into a stadium, no sea of colorful campaign signs, no presidential exhortations to “Vote! Vote! Vote!” captured by TV cameras.
Instead, Mr. Biden and Mr. Fetterman, the lieutenant governor, will gather in a closed-door reception for invited guests only, the president’s brief remarks captured by a handful of reporters who will quickly be escorted out before the rest of the event. Mr. Biden will also give an official speech on infrastructure in Pittsburgh on Thursday, hours before the private reception.
Furthering the idea of Democrats in disarray, especially when it comes to doing enough ahead of these midterm elections that may very well produce a red wave, is that Amie Parnes the very next day wrote for The Hill how "Democrats grumble it’s too little, too late with Obama."
Parnes mentions how Biden has been a problem for his fellow Democrats, but it's more of an aside when it comes to Obama being the main point of the piece. "President Biden is widely seen as a drag on the party’s fortunes this cycle as he battles dismal approval ratings. With some candidates not wanting Biden to attend rallies in their states and districts, the absence of Obama’s star power has been notable," she acknowledges.
As is often the case with juicy points about Dems in disarray, there's the use of anonymous sources in her piece:
Obama did attend four fundraisers in August and September to raise money for candidates, but some Democrats say that’s not enough given his standing and ability to draw a crowd.
“I think a lot of people have said, ‘Where’s Obama?’” one Democratic strategist acknowledged. “He shouldn’t just be the closer. He’s still seen as the party’s rock star.”
In interviews, other strategists and donors reiterated the sentiment that Obama should be out there more to help the party.
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“I think it’s foolish to leave things to the end,” one strategist said of the use of Obama.
Again, Obama's appearance in Nevada, to promote early voting, isn't taking place until a week before the election.
The piece also acknowledges that it's possible not even Obama can save Democrats when it comes to this red wave. "Obama’s presence at rallies can help with a crowd, but they don’t always lead to success at the ballot box," Parnes wrote, also mentioning the colossal midterm losses under Obama's presidency in 2010 and 2014.
In recent days, even mainstream media outlets and pollsters have acknowledged that Republicans are likely to win the midterms, and win big.
Again, forecasters consider these Nevada races to be "Toss-Up" ones, which isn't exactly where an incumbent wants to be. Cortez Masto in particular has been mentioned in numerous lists as one of, if not the, most vulnerable incumbents.
In addition to considering both races to be a "Toss-Up," RealClearPolitics (RCP) has both races projected to be a "GOP Pick Up." The RCP also has both Laxalt and Lombardo ahead in the poll averages, with a +1.2 lead for Laxalt and a +1.8 lead for Lombardo. While RCP shows a tie between Sisolak and Lombardo in polls from this month and last month, they haven't shown the incumbent leading in a poll since August.
In addition to support in the polls, Laxalt has the vote of Dawn Buoncristiani, who worked for both Laxalt and Cortez Masto in the state's attorney general office. Laxalt served that role from 2015-2019, while Cortez Masto did just before him, from 2007-2015. Buoncristiani encouraged others to vote for Laxalt in a Wednesday column for the Reno Gazette Journal, "I worked for 4 attorneys general, and Laxalt ran the best office."
