Last Friday, as we covered, RealClearPolitics (RCP) changed the rating in the New York gubernatorial race between Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican opponent Rep. Lee Zeldin to "Toss-Up." Zeldin is once more in the news again on Tuesday, as a Quinnipiac poll shows that Hochul leads her opponent by just 4 percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent.
Both candidates enjoy strong support from their party members, with 91 percent of Democrats supporting Hochul and 92 percent of Republicans supporting Zeldin. However, by double digits, Independents support Zeldin, by 57 to 37 percent. This support is crucial given how much Democratic voters outweigh Republican ones in the state.
New Quinnipiac NY poll has Kathy Hochul up only 4 over Lee Zeldin
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 18, 2022
NY Governor
(D) Kathy Hochul 50% (+4)
(R) Lee Zeldin 46%
Independents
(R) Lee Zeldin 57% (+20)
(D) Kathy Hochul 37%
Most important issue: Crime - 28%
10/12-16 | 1,617 Likely voters https://t.co/b0oT3UR4Qj pic.twitter.com/7veM4yqXqD
Hochul and Zeldin are about even when it comes to the favorable ratings, at 44 percent and 43 percent, respectively. Hochul has greater unfavorable ratings, though, at 45 percent, while 9 percent said they hadn't heard enough about her. Zeldin's unfavorable ratings are at 37 percent, while 18 percent haven't heard enough about him.
Another factor that helps Zeldin is that crime is the top issue for voters, at 28 percent, which Zeldin has acknowledged by making it a cornerstone of his campaign.
The NY GOP Twitter account reminded voters of how Zeldin last week revealed part of his Day One agenda, which includes declaring a state of emergency on crime, suspending cashless bail, and firing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.
Recommended
WATCH: @leezeldin outlines first actions he will take as Governor👇
— New York GOP (@NewYorkGOP) October 18, 2022
Day 1
➡️ Declare crime emergency
➡️ Suspend cashless bail
➡️ FIRE DA Alvin Bragghttps://t.co/s35JCrhQ7V
"In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive. Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul's narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow is quoted as saying. Snow also acknowledges the crime issue being a factor. "Across the board, crime ranks high on the list of pressing issues. Zeldin making crime a major part of his campaign could be where he's making inroads in this race."
While Hochul leads Zeldin by 4 percent, the amount of Democratic respondents over Republican respondents is far greater than that. Thirty-nine percent identify as Democrats, while 31 percent identify as Independents and just 24 percent identify as Republican.
The poll was conducted October 12-16, with 1,617 likely New York voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Zeldin's campaign released a statement from the congressman not long after the poll results came out.
"We've consistently been gaining massive ground on Hochul as New Yorkers witness first hand her abysmal record on the issues most important to them - crime, the economy, corruption and more," he said. "Every day, all day, we've been ALL IN, all across the state, communicating directly with voters about the issues that matter most to them. The polls have continued to show that our message is resonating, and on Tuesday, November 8th, New York voters are going to elect a new Governor to Save Our State and restore New York to glory."
RCP's average of polls has increased to give a +6.2 lead for Hochul, as a poll from Siena College found an 11 point lead for Hochul, with 52 percent to Zeldin's 41 percent. Even still, a tweet from The New York Times shows that her lead is shrinking according to that poll as well.
Representative Lee Zeldin has cut into Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lead in the race for governor of New York, narrowing the margin to 10 percentage points, down from 17 points last month, a Siena College poll shows. https://t.co/Hnek06piEe
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 18, 2022
"Zeldin" and "Quinnipiac" were trending over Twitter on Tuesday as a result of the poll, with many pointing out that the race is indeed becoming competitive.
Just 12 days ago I was mocked for saying this race is competitive.
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) October 18, 2022
Lee Zeldin can win. https://t.co/YxnkZwllo1
Worth noting that New York is still primarily an election day voting state. While NY offers a week of early voting, absentee ballots need to be explicitly requested & are by excuse only. So with 20 days to go, almost no votes have been cast & Zeldin is surging at the right time. https://t.co/wOOhZbKvOA
— RRH Elections (@RRHElections) October 18, 2022
Holy shit. Quinnipiac, a pollster that always skews left, shows Zeldin within 4 points of Hochul pic.twitter.com/PAGtrihKIb
— Jared Rabel (@JradRabel) October 18, 2022
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