In this partisan, polarized country, there's a keen interest in what independent voters think. As we've been covering for some time now at Townhall, independents are certainly no fan of President Joe Biden, though they preferred him to former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election, thus handing him his victory. As voters head to the polls two months from now, it's worth examining how independents feel about voting Democratic.
First, when it comes to independents, they were not too thrilled with Biden's speech last Thursday outside of Independence Hall, during which he attacked his political opponents by demonizing "MAGA Republicans."
A poll from the Trafalgar Group done with Convention of States Action found that 56.8 percent of overall respondents considered Biden's speech to be "a dangerous escalation in rhetoric" and "designed to incite conflict amongst Americans," with 62.4 percent of independents indicating as much.
That poll was conducted September 2-5, so right after Biden's speech, with 1,084 likely general election voters and a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
New @trafalgar_group/@COSProject #poll shows majority (56.8%) of #Americans say #Biden speech is dangerous escalation in rhetoric, designed to incite conflict.
— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) September 6, 2022
Dangerous rhetoric:
18.7% #Dem
89.1% #GOP
62.4% #Inds
Report: https://t.co/iWb5H3uOrC pic.twitter.com/S2LuWjAmtY
Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media seem to think that independents favor Biden now. In his September 5 column for the Washington Post, Max Boot praised the Biden speech, which is ironic, considering the results of the poll above from the Trafalgar Group/Convention of States Action. Boot cited no proof of such gains among independents. He also mentioned an NBC News poll claiming "Threats to democracy" was the greatest issue, a poll which has been debunked, even by those on the left.
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New @NBCNews poll shows "two different universes" when it comes to top issues facing democrats and republicans. @SteveKornacki breaks it down. pic.twitter.com/K3RpXDcH7g
— Katy Tur Reports (@KatyOnMSNBC) August 22, 2022
As MSNBC's Steve Kornacki also pointed out when analyzing the poll, economic issues such as "cost of living" and "jobs/economy" were separated but need not have been since they fall under economic issues, and together would have surpassed the "threats to democracy" issue.
Interactive Polls, though, highlighted polls showing the opposite of what Boot and his ilk claim.
Yahoo/YouGov Poll: Independents
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 8, 2022
Biden Job Approval
Approve 32%
Disapprove 60%
The Economy
Approve 27%
Disapprove 63%
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans 32% (+6)
Democrats 26%
2024 Election
(R) Donald Trump 42% (+9)
(D) Joe Biden 33%https://t.co/GFekeva2nn pic.twitter.com/6U5RQm7Xbq
This includes a Yahoo/YouGov poll, which shows Biden with just a 32 percent approval rating among independents, while 60 percent disapprove.
While the generic Congressional ballot does have Democrats with a lead of 39 percent to 34 percent, independents are more likely to support Republicans, 32 percent to 26 percent.
That poll was conducted September 2-6, with 1,634 adults and a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.
What was the headline that the mainstream media went with for that poll, including Yahoo! News? Well, Andrew Romano wrote for the outlet that "Biden now leads Trump by widest margin in 6 months." Newsweek's Darragh Roche focused on the same headline with a piece earlier on Thursday, writing "Joe Biden Hammering Donald Trump in Latest Head-to-Head Poll."
That poll shows Biden up 43 percent to 40 percent among adults and 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters.
Another particularly interesting way of measuring popularity is by historic trends. The 2018 midterm elections were not good for Republicans, as they often aren't for the president's party. Republicans lost 40 seats in the House, though they did gain two in the Senate.
As Interactive Polls highlighted, Trump had a net approval rating among the coveted independents of -4. Meanwhile, Biden has a net approval rating with that same demographic of -37.
On the eve of 2018 Midterm elections (Nov 5, 2018) — President Trump's Net Approval among INDEPENDENTS was 33 points higher than Biden's now (YouGov Tracker)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2022
Trump (net: -4)
Approve 46%
Disapprove 50%
Biden (net: -37)
Approve 27%
Disapprove 64%https://t.co/GSlSXzJ2RX pic.twitter.com/vZTOka2jK2
And, as an overall important midterm election reminder that all ought to keep in mind, which Interactive Polls also highlighted earlier this summer, is that Republicans were underestimated in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. They went on to win 63 House seats and 13 House seats, respectively.
Pollsters Underestimated Republicans in early polling in 2010 and 2014
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 5, 2022
At this time in:
July 2010: Dems led by 0.3%
Nov 2010: GOP won by +6.8%
July 2014: Dems led by 1.2%
Nov 2014: GOP won by 5.7%
? Average early polling Error: D+7
GOP leads by 2 points now... pic.twitter.com/v8HyPlAVoZ
