The polling situation has been atrocious for Democrats this midterm election cycle, and it looks like it may be worse than we initially thought, according to Democrats own internal polling. Punchbowl News had information about the poll in a Wednesday morning newsletter, using phrases such as how the party is "getting crushed" and how they're "particularly brutal."
"House Democrats may be in worse political peril than they’ve let on publicly," the blurb in the newsletter, included in a section titled "BAD NEWS BEARS FOR DEMS," Punchbowl warns. "This is a stunning margin and highlights the incredibly perilous position Democrats find themselves in," the newsletter also noted, really hammering the message home.
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) has the thankless job of defending the House's Democratic majority for 2022 as the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), as well as informing members in battleground districts that they are losing 47-39 against the generic Republican.
"Given that Democrats generally have a three- or four-point built in advantage on the generic ballot, this is a particularly concerning development for Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s majority. An eight-point deficit on the generic ballot could be a sign of a wave for House Republicans," the newsletter notes, emphasizing what we've already known for some time: a red wave is coming.
While it's possible Democrats are using these poll numbers to scare their members into doing better for November, their hopes for messaging don't look to be helping them.
Democrats are told to refer to House Republicans as "MAGA Republicans," having been told by Democratic leaders that this "would help them improve the political environment by linking every House Republican to former President Donald Trump without mentioning Trump himself." As Matt highlighted it took President Joe Biden six months to think of his "Ultra MAGA" insult, which many Republican figures, such as former President Donald Trump.
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Chris Taylor, a spokesman for the DCCC is quoted as pointing out that "Frontline Democrats’ record of delivering for their communities means they head into November ready to defeat extremist MAGA Republicans, who will have to defend their plan to implement a nationwide abortion ban and their embrace of white supremacist ‘great replacement’ theories."
Frontliner candidates are supposedly outpacing Biden's job approval by 21.8 percentage points.
Abortion is another issue that Democrats will hope will help them, as the U.S. Supreme Court looks to overturn Roe v. Wade, according to a leaked draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson. Polling shows that Americans are still far more concerned about other issues, but also that the news invigorates pro-life voters even more so than pro-abortion ones.
Further, the Punchbowl newsletter references another poll, from the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), a super PAC aimed at electing House Republicans.
The CLF poll looked to 16 districts where Biden won by eight points, on average. The president's job approval rating is underwater by eight points, and the generic ballot is tied, giving new meaning to "toss-up" districts.
Polled districts included those represented by candidates that are indeed considered vulnerable, such as Reps. Abigail Spanberger (VA), Kim Schrier (WA), Mike Levin (CA), Angie Craig (MN), Susie Lee (NV), Jahana Hayes (CT), and Kurt Schrader (OR).
The Punchbowl newsletter regards Schrader's race as one where he "was being beaten handily on Tuesday night by a progressive challenger," thus "making the seat an even more attractive target for Republicans."
Decision Desk has yet to call the race, though Schrader, a Biden-endorsed candidate, is behind by double digits.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 61% in): OR-05 DEM
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) May 18, 2022
Jamie Mcleod-Skinner 24,836 (61%)
Kurt Schrader* 15,664 (39%)
*Incumbent
More results here: https://t.co/h9iDUGjLkK
The Republican Party is already expected to regain control of the House, and quite possibly the Senate.
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