It's no secret that Republican leaders in Washington, DC have been wooing former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu to run for US Senate for years -- especially in the last midterm cycle. He ultimately rejected their overtures, turning down their recruitment efforts for a variety of reasons, including a stated distaste for the partisan gridlock of national politics. But now, he might be changing his mind. To the surprise of many, Democratic incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen -- herself a former governor, as is the state's other Senator, Maggie Hassan -- just announced she will not seek re-election in 2026. That departure creates a juicy open seat. Within hours of her decision going public, reports started to emerge that Sununu might be rethinking his previously-adamant opposition for seeking a seat in the upper chamber after all.
On my radio show yesterday, Sununu made clear that he has not made any decision, but unlike some of his declarative denials in the past, he's entertaining the possibility. "The door is not closed," he said, while also dismissing any concerns that may be raised about his uneven relationship with President Trump:
👀 Sununu on a possible 2026 #NHSen run w/ Shaheen retiring: “The door is not closed.” Says he’s very confident he’d win. Asked about rocky relationship with Trump, he says they’re in a good place. “That relationship is not of concern.” Listen here —> https://t.co/9Az91obTjj
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) March 13, 2025
Here's the full interview:
What has changed between 2020 and 2022, when he said 'no,' and now? Among other factors, Sununu believes Republicans are more interested in reducing spending and the size of government. He also mentioned his children being older. Another element that stuck out to me in the interview was his profound confidence that he would win the seat if he sought it. Not could. Would. He said he knows New Hampshire voters extremely well, and they know him. He's built trust and a reputation over four terms (two years each) as governor. In 2016, he squeaked by with a two-point victory. In 2018, a blue wave year, he won re-election, expanding his margin to seven points. In 2020, he cruised to another re-election with 65 percent of the vote. He won another blowout in 2022, despite Democrats sweeping the federal races in New Hampshire. His confidence may be very well-founded. This would be a marquee candidate for Republicans to land, if he decides to take the plunge, putting a current Democrat-held seat very seriously in play -- and applying major pressure to Democrats' path to regaining a majority in the midterms. Meanwhile, regarding another intriguing open seat that Democrats will need to defend, this development genuinely surprised me:
While my own plans don’t include running for office in 2026, I remain intensely focused on consolidating, communicating, and supporting a vision for this alternative.
— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) March 13, 2025
The decisions made by elected leaders matter entirely because of how they shape our everyday lives - and the…
Exclusive: Pete Buttigieg won't run for Senate next year and has his eyes on a bigger prize: The White House. https://t.co/I18A1iQZJ9
— POLITICO (@politico) March 13, 2025
Buttigieg left his real home state because he knew he couldn't win statewide there, having gotten decimated in a prior attempt. It seemed as though the primary reason he moved to Michigan was to find more hospitable terrain for another political run. When Sen. Gary Peters announced his pending retirement, sources around Buttigieg (quite possibly the former mayor and part-time cabinet secretary himself) whispered to reporters that he was taking a hard look at gunning for the seat. That decision felt like an inevitability. But now he's opted out. Perhaps he saw some unfavorable early polling that suggested he'd be in for a tough dog fight. Perhaps some powerful Democrats who are actually from Michigan pulled him aside and made it clear that he should expect the opposite of a coronation in the primary. Indeed, perhaps someone else very established and powerful has her eye on that race. Or maybe Buttigieg sees a national party in some disarray, doesn't feel like the 2028 field will be insurmountable for him, and truly believes he can end up on the national ticket in a few years.
Whatever the reason, Buttigieg out and Sununu in could be a really tough one-two punch for the DSCC. If the economy is in rough shape by next summer, candidate quality may end up being less important, but if it's a competitive nationwide environment, the decisions and moves of early 2025 could prove very significant.