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There's Been Another Poll Released on the 2028 Democratic Field

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  November 26, 2024 4:15 PM

Last week, following major losses for Democrats — not merely at the top of the ticket for the Harris-Walz campaign, but also when it comes to losing control of the Senate and being unable to take back control of the House — polling came out about who Democrats are interested in seeing run for 2028. On Tuesday, another poll was released, and it appears that there's a pattern.

With both the Echelon Insights poll from last Monday, which we covered at the time, and now this week's poll from Emerson College, Vice President Kamala Harris looks to be in the lead. Last week's poll showed 41 percent of Democrats would want her as the nominee if the primary were held today, while the next highest vote getter was "unsure," at 16 percent. California Gov. Gavin Newsom enjoyed 8 percent support. 

According to the Emerson College poll, 37 percent selected Harris, though this time it was much closer between the vice president and the 35 percent who said "undecided." Once more, Newsom was the next highest vote getter, with 7 percent support.

The poll included 400 Democratic primary/caucus voters, and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, putting Harris' lead well within the margin of error. 

Will Harris run for president a third time? If so, will she actually win a single primary vote, unlike the previous two times she ran? While she ran in the crowded 2020 cycle, she dropped out in December 2019, before any votes were even cast. More recently, she was installed by the Democratic Party, after President Joe Biden was forced out of the race by his fellow Democrats on July 21.

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There's been plenty of blame game to go around, including and especially when it comes to Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who was instrumental in what looked to have been a coup. There was, after all, a threat of the 25th Amendment reportedly involved. Pelosi even recently blamed Biden for not dropping out sooner and for endorsing Harris when he did, in a lengthy and depressing interview with The New York Times, shortly after the election.

Will Biden endorse Harris in 2028 as well? Will it even matter? There's been speculation, especially with what Pelosi lamented about, and their feuds, that the Bidens had it out for Harris, including when it comes to First Lady Jill Biden. It's up for debate whether anyone would even want his endorsement, though. The poll found that Biden has just a 36 percent approval rating, which is "a four-year low for the president in Emerson polls," while he has a 52 percent disapproval rating. 

Harris likely lost, in part, earlier this month — and will likely lose if she runs again in 2028 and actually wins a primary — because of a sense of that elitism from bright blue California. It looks like she may run for governor, as Madeline covered on Monday, which may be a more suitable role for her. It also bodes poorly for Newsom, though. As exciting as a matchup between Newsom and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would be, the Democrats likely don't want Newsom for such reasons. 

Speaking of DeSantis, the poll also looked to who Republicans want to be their 2028 nominee. While 51 percent say they're "undecided," 30 percent say Vice President-elect JD Vance, who has the most support of any actual person. DeSantis is next, with 5 percent. 

What's also noteworthy about the poll is it examined how voters feel about President-elect Donald Trump. His favorability has gone up since before the election, from a favorability rating of 48 percent to 54 percent. "Trump’s favorability varies significantly by gender, race, and age," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, is quoted as saying. "Trump’s strongest age cohort is among voters 40-59, with 60% viewing him favorably, compared to 48% among those over 70. Notably, his favorability has risen among younger voters, with 55% of those under 30 expressing a favorable opinion."

Men favor Trump at 61 percent, while women aren't far off, at 48 percent. Fifty-nine percent of white voters view Trump favorably, as do a majority of Hispanic voters, at 53 percent, and a not insignificant 28 percent of black voters. 

The poll's write-up also highlighted how a list of Trump's nominees are also viewed more favorably than not:

Voters were asked if they support or oppose Trump’s cabinet nominations:

  • Marco Rubio (Secretary of State nomination) 45% support, 32% oppose
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Health and Human Services Secretary nomination) 47% support, 40% oppose
  • Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence nomination) 40% support, 33% oppose
  • Dr. Mehmet Oz (Medicare and Medicaid Administrator nomination) 41% support, 37% oppose

The poll was conducted November 20-22 with 1,000 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

On Sunday, CBS News/YouGov released their own poll, as Townhall has been covering, also showing positive results for Trump, his transition, and the nominees for his Cabinet. Young voters are significant in both polls, given their support for Trump. There's bad news for Democrats in both polls as well. 

Perhaps Democrats will get their act together for the 2026 midterms and/or the 2028 presidential election. All signs, however, for right now at least, point to Democrats still being in quite the mess.