With less than three weeks before election day, Republicans' chances of retaking the Senate continue to look good. One such race that could determine which party controls the chamber comes out of Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno is running to unseat vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown. Polls have shown the race to be close, though Brown has tended to have the edge. On Thursday, however, Morning Consult released a poll showing Moreno up by +1.
According to a poll conducted October 6-15 with 1,243 likely voters, Moreno now leads by 47-46 percent.
📊 OHIO Senate: @MorningConsult
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 17, 2024
🟥 Bernie Moreno: 47%
🟦 Sherrod Brown: 46%
Last poll (9/18) - 🔵 Brown +2
——
#107 (1.9/3.0) | 10/6-15 | 1,243 LV pic.twitter.com/FLvuZgKSKE
Brown led Moreno by +2 in last month's poll, by 46-44 percent. Not only did Moreno see an increase in support, but Brown's support remained stagnant.
It's worth reminding that Morning Consult tends to be a poll that has skewed to the left and has been inaccurate before when showing Democrats overperforming.
Many have taken to celebrating Moreno's lead over X, as well as pointing to Morning Consult's skew.
MORENO LEADS IN MORNING CONSULT. https://t.co/o5uphAd3gn pic.twitter.com/wZt35PU4uw
— Tron (@TronVTron) October 17, 2024
Morning Consult of all pollsters is giving Moreno a lead!
— Mr. Republican 🇺🇸🇻🇦 (@conservative767) October 17, 2024
Pretty bad news for Bolshevik Brown! 😬 https://t.co/viOwK8Xm0W
Just a reminder the last 2020 Morning Consult poll in PA was Biden +9, and was off by 7.5 points. They missed pretty much every state to the left and outside the margin. As far as I can tell they have done nothing to adjust their methodology
— Mark Davin Harris (@markdharris) October 17, 2024
No way Morning Consult just released a poll that has Moreno winning, this race is over lmao https://t.co/163atiXezn
— The Bear Pundit🇺🇸🇮🇱 (@thebearpundit) October 17, 2024
Moreno's chances have also been going up, per Polymarket.
As of Thursday afternoon, shortly after the poll was released, there's a 56 percent chance that Republicans will win this race.
Bernie Moreno is also starting to pull away in Ohio. Republicans are now favored to flip West Virginia, Montana and Ohio in the senate, two of these states would give Republicans control. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are all super tight, Nevada and Arizona in play pic.twitter.com/s8bMK005up
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) October 17, 2024
The same Morning Consult poll shows former and potentially future President Donald Trump up +7 in Ohio, which seems low, given that Trump won the state by about 8 points in both 2016 and 2020.
The polls wildly underestimated Trump in the Buckeye State for both years. Per RealClearPolling, Trump was only leading by +0.5 on October 17 in both 2016 and 2020. He's now leading by +7.4 over Vice President Kamala Harris.
The average for 2016 had him ahead by just +2.2 over Hillary Clinton, and by just +1.0 over President Joe Biden.
President (Ohio)
— Stella (@stella2020woof) October 17, 2024
Trump (R) 52%
Harris (D) 45%
10/6-10/15 by Morning Consult (1.8/3 rating)
1243 LV
Arf arf! Did I do a good job?
Source: https://t.co/WdV2oy0T5L
Moreno, who was endorsed by Trump last December, handily won his primary in March with over 50 percent of the vote, wildly outperforming the polls for that three way race. Unlike when Brown easily won reelection in 2018, Moreno also has the benefit of Trump's coattails, who is almost surely expected to win Ohio for the third time.
The Senate race out of Ohio is considered a true "Toss-Up," while the state's 17 electoral votes are considered to be "Likely Trump."