Tipsheet

Wall Street Places Its Bets on a Trump Win

President Joe Biden’s economic policies have made Americans poorer and his family richer. 

With less than four months until the 2024 election, Wall Street investors are placing bets that former President Donald Trump’s economy will financially benefit Americans. 

A Politico report highlighted that Wall Street investors are bullish on Trump’s promise to lower taxes and decrease regulation as the likelihood of another Trump term looks to be a reality. 

“Spreads between two-year and 10-year Treasury notes were becoming more sensitive to Trump’s favorability, according to State Street’s MediaStats Election Indicator, likely because “inflation expectations are going up,” Noel Dixon, a global macro strategist at State Street, said. “The presumption is that Trump’s policies — which include across-the-board tariffs and mass deportations — would cause prices to rise.” 

The average American worker would ultimately benefit from Trump’s economic policies due to his harsh stance on illegal immigration as they grapple with Biden’s unfavorable trade policies.

With significant changes to the country’s immigration and trade policies should Trump secure the win, investors would be forced to resist “the risk of higher inflation and lower growth.” 

The outlet noted that it was assumed Trump’s economic and immigration policies would drive inflation up, however, “Spreads between two-year and 10-year Treasury notes were becoming more sensitive to Trump’s favorability.” 

Under Biden, the country’s standard of living has gone down thanks to the low-wage labor. However, with Trump’s immigration policy, Americans will see businesses pay living wages to their employees.

With Trump’s advantage over Biden growing after the debate, Barclays is also now recommending investors explore hedges against future inflation, Bloomberg reported. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes jumped on Monday as conviction over the likelihood of a Trump victory solidified. Trump had a narrow swing-state polling advantage over Biden even before the debate cast doubt on the president’s physical and mental capabilities. As Biden allies and top Democrats scramble to do damage controland preserve their own political careers — market participants are starting to lock in on what policies Trump could implement should he return to the White House. Via Politico. 

Trump has repeatedly vowed to place strict tariffs on imports and promote U.S.-made products. 

Michael Faulkender, the chief economist at the America First Policy Institute, pointed out that the stock market was booming under the Trump Administration, dismissing claims from Democrats who said benefiting American employees is bad for investors. 

“With the right set of policies, we can improve outcomes for investors and workers alike. That was the record under President Trump, and that’s what I expect the second term to go back to,” Faulkner told the Daily Caller News Foundation.