It's not exactly a secret that abortion hasn't been a winning issue for Republicans. It can be argued that the issue was what at least contributed to Republicans having a more disappointing 2022 midterms than was widely expected, though pro-life groups say otherwise. Roe v. Wade is gone, and now it's Dobbs v. Jackson that's the law of the land, allowing the people to decide the issue through their elected representatives. Nevertheless, Republicans understand the problem they are facing, and it was a matter addressed at the House Republican retreat this week.
Punchbowl has the details explaining how the situation is a "branding problem" for Republicans:
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va. — After getting outspent and out-messaged on abortion rights during the 2022 midterm elections, House Republican leadership knows the issue is a major problem for their candidates in 2024. Instead of trying to ignore the battle over abortion access, the topic has come up time and again during the GOP retreat this week.
The GOP Solution? Urge Republicans in tough races to aggressively confront Democratic attacks and define their own positions on the campaign trail. But it remains to be seen whether tackling the issue head-on will blunt Democratic gains.
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson insisted to us in an interview that Republicans have a “branding problem” on abortion rights, not a policy problem.
“Most voters think Republicans’ position is a very narrow, extreme position, which it’s not,” Hudson said. “There is no one Republican position. A lot of candidates have a lot of different positions, from states’ rights to reasonable limits.”
Hudson was expanding on an NRCC memo first reported by the Wall Street Journal. The guidance to candidates — which Hudson said was backed up by polling and focus groups in battleground districts — echoed what the NRCC chair told reporters in the fall.
It's worth noting that this is especially with regard to how Democrats in contrast address it. Not only do Democrats support abortion up until birth for any reason without legal limits and paid for with taxpayer dollars, but they also accuse Republicans of being the extreme ones. What Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) describes as "reasonable limits," which is at about 15 weeks, Democrats decry as an "abortion ban."
Former and potentially future President Donald Trump expressed support for a 16-week abortion limit last month, and as Guy highlighted, polling shows there's support for it.
Punchbowl's further categorization gets a bit tricky, especially when it comes to polls:
The problem for Republicans: Public polling has shown the electorate largely favors increased access to abortion.
→ A recent Quinnipiac poll from the crucial swing state of Michigan found two-thirds of voters think abortion should be legal in either all cases or most cases. Just 28% of respondents polled said abortion should be illegal in either most cases or all cases.
→ In November, a WSJ-NORC poll found nationwide support for abortion access nearing a record high.
Yes, polling does show support for "increased access to abortion," and that's in part due to the rather successful fearmongering after the Dobbs decision was leaked and handed down.
That Quinnipiac poll points to "big differences by party," which makes sense. Michigan is a rather Democratic state in a lot of ways now, having reelected the rather pro-abortion Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2022 by over 10 points. That same year, the state also passed a radical ballot initiative codifying abortion up until birth.
These polls also don't get into the territory of whether or not respondents believe abortion should be legal "in all cases," which means legal abortion up until birth.
The Wall Street Journal write-up slightly gets into it when mentioning how "[m]any voters have nuanced views, including backing restrictions later in pregnancy and exceptions for difficult circumstances, that they say aren’t well captured by current legislative proposals."
Another point on polling that's worth noting, which Punchbowl ignores, is how Americans are not comfortable with abortions later in pregnancy, and polling support drops for legal abortion later in pregnancy. Just 37 percent of Americans believe that abortion should be legal in the second trimester, and just 22 percent believe that it should be legal in the third trimester, according to Gallup.
Polling also shows that Americans don't support taxpayer dollars going toward elective abortions, which is what Democrats have been hellbent on doing when it comes to efforts to repeal the Hyde Amendment. This includes President Joe Biden, who once supported the Hyde Amendment.
Punchbowl's coverage is even testier when looking to explain the Republican and Democratic positions:
With numbers like this, will better messaging really make a difference? House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik thinks so.
“We believe it’s important for our members to engage on this issue and not stick their heads in the sand, which I think some potential candidates had done in the past,” Stefanik told reporters at the retreat.
Beyond encouraging candidates to speak about their own abortion stances, leadership wants the party to go on the attack.
“It’s Democrats who are the radicals on this. They want taxpayer-funded abortions. They want to repeal the Hyde Amendment and they support late-term abortion,” Stefanik said.
Of course, voters didn’t agree with that point of view in 2022.
And Democrats argue they are simply seeking to codify Roe into law. The party’s messaging doesn’t delve into any restrictions on abortion. Instead, Democrats say those decisions are best left to women and their doctors, not politicians.
There is plenty of pushback to get into there, which Punchbowl missed an opportunity to address, but rather provided cover for pro-abortion Democrats.
Townhall attended an event for reporters that House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) held not long before the 2022 midterms, during which she made similar remarks.
By claiming that "[o]f course, voters didn't agree with that point of view in 2022," Punchbowl ignores the Democratic messaging of lying and fearmongering on the issue.
When calling out now Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for his flip-flopping on the abortion issue, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America pointed out in a statement in response that coverage from The New York Times highlighted the messaging strategy that Democratic candidates were able to use.
Groups like SBA also argued right after the 2022 elections that it was pro-life leaders who faced support for a 15-week abortion limit who were rewarded at the ballot box, such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Sens. Ted Budd (R-NC) and JD Vance (R-OH), the latter two who were first elected in 2022.
To say that "Democrats argue they are simply seeking to codify Roe into law. The party's messaging doesn't delve into any restrictions on abortion," is putting it very politely, with an emphasis on "Democrats argue."
As Guy addressed, the Women's Health Protection Act, legislation Democrats have introduced multiple times, and which passed the Democratically-controlled House for the 117th Congress, would not merely codify Roe but expand it.
"The party's messaging doesn't delve into any restrictions on abortion" because Democrats don't believe in any limits. It doesn't help that White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre would rather cause confusion on the president's stance, as other Democrats have done, but here we are.
What's not confusing is how committed the Biden administration is to abortion, especially given that Vice President Kamala Harris visited a Planned Parenthood abortion facility in Minnesota on Thursday, becoming the first vice president to do so.
Going back to polling, polls consistently show that abortion is a winning issue for Democrats over Republicans, though it's one of the very few. It's also a major motivating factor for Democrats but not for Republicans, and Republicans also seem to be more motivated. It will be interesting to see if such a "branding" strategy works.
Some pro-lifers, on the other hand, don't think this is the way to go, as they argue Americans need to know what an abortion actually is and what it does, including the babies who survive abortion attempts.
.@melissaohden says she was 31 weeks when her birth mother tried to abort her. She survived after being soaked in poison injected into her mother's womb for five whole days in a failed saline infusion abortion.
— Mary Margaret Olohan (@MaryMargOlohan) March 14, 2024
These stories are real. https://t.co/hoyM20P6nq