On early Wednesday morning, Decision Desk HQ called the U.S. Senate race for Republican incumbent Ron Johnson, who was, at least at some points by some forecasters, considered one of the party's more vulnerable members. Nevertheless, he held on in a close race against Democrat Mandela Barnes.
With over 91 percent of the vote in, Johnson had 50.63 percent to Barnes' 49.37 percent.
Decision Desk HQ projects Sen. Ron Johnson (R) wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Wisconsin.#DecisionMade: 2:23am EST
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 9, 2022
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While other forecasters and predictions doubted Johnson's reelection slightly, seeing the race as "Lean Republican" or "Tilt Republican," Decision Desk HQ remained largely in the incumbent's favor. While this was the case with most incumbents, it was especially true of Johnson, whose race was regarded as "Likely Republican." Decision Desk HQ was also one of the first to call the race in Johnson's favor.
Johnson also enjoyed a polling average from RealClearPolitics (RCP) that amounted to a +3.6 lead. While RCP appeared even more uncertain of Johnson's ability to win reelection, forecasting a "Toss Up" race, they did project a "GOP Hold."
Barnes was a radical, soft-on-crime candidate who trashed the police. Republicans made this a focal point of their campaign, with polls showing that voters did indeed believe he wanted to defund the police.
Democrats, including and especially former President Barack Obama who appeared in the state late last month to campaign for Barnes, claimed that Johnson wanted to get rid of Social Security and Medicare, though it appears to have not been a winning message.