Tipsheet

Despite Valiant Challenge from Zeldin, Hochul Manages to Win New York Gubernatorial Race

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  November 09, 2022 12:45 AM

Late on Tuesday night, Decision Desk HQ called the New York gubernatorial race in favor of Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY), who was elected to her first full term after replacing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) who resigned in August of last year. As blue as New York is considered, Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) provided a formidable challenge to Hochul.

With an estimated 90 percent of the vote, the results are stunningly close, at least compared to what they were in previous years. Hochul has 53.99 percent of the vote compared to Zeldin's 46.01 precent of the vote. 

For context, Cuomo was elected in 2018 with Hochul as his lieutenant governor. He won with 59.6 percent of the vote compared to Republican nominee Marc Molinaro's 36.2 percent. Cuomo also won in 2014 with Hochul as his running mate by 14 points and in 2010 by nearly 30 points. 

Zeldin was considered to have momentum, especially in the final weeks of the race, first and foremost because he actually prioritized New York voters' top issue of crime, while Hochul was largely dismissive of that concern and even mocked Zeldin for it. 

 

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While the race was ultimately called in Hochul's favor, Zeldin did make significant gains in that he became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win Staten Island since 2002. 

It was also always going to be considered something of an uphill battle, not merely because many polls and forecasters were in Hochul's favor, but also with the state having twice as many Democratic registered voters as Republicans. Further, New York led the nation in population loss from July 2020 and July 2021, with many of those driven away being potential Zeldin voters. 

The last time that New York had a Republican governor was George Pataki, who was first elected in 1994 and served until 2006. 

Zeldin, could potentially still come back to run again in four years, especially if the final tally in this race remains close. He won his current seat in the U.S. House of Representatives by beating an incumbent, Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop in 2014, though he lost to Bishop by double digits in that 2008 race. If he tries again, Zeldin could very much win this race next time.