By the end of the month, thousands of troops in the Army National Guard could face dismissal or unpaid service if they continue to choose not to get the COVID-19 vaccine.
There remain about 40,000 troops in the Army National Guard who have elected not to receive the COVID vaccine and about 14,000 of them have refused to get it no matter what. About 7,000 have sought exemptions, mainly for religious reasons, very few of which have been granted — as of March 2022, only one person in the Army was granted one, which is fewer than any other branch of the military. Few have been granted since. On June 30, the force requires every member get the shot or face dismissal.
The mandates are complex and their enforcement depends on a number of factors, including the location of activation for members of the Army National Guard (via AP):
The Pentagon has said that after June 30, Guard members won’t be paid by the federal government when they are activated on federal status, which includes their monthly drill weekends and their two-week annual training period. Guard troops mobilized on federal status and assigned to the southern border or on COVID-19 missions in various states also would have to be vaccinated or they would not be allowed to participate or be paid.
To make it more complicated, however, Guard soldiers on state activate duty may not have to be vaccinated — based on the requirements in their states. As long as they remain in state duty status, they can be paid by the state and used for state missions.
Vaccine advocates minimize the impact this could have on the force, calling the thousands at risk of dismissal a "minority:"
A minority (13%) of Army National Guard troops will face dismissal if they do not get the COVID-19 vaccine by next. week.https://t.co/cYZZg6Cdn8 pic.twitter.com/J7uzIkbx5R
— History of Vaccines (@historyvaccines) June 27, 2022
Higher-ups in the Army National Guard have voiced concerns about what the loss of up to 40,000 troops would do to the efficacy of the force, including Lieutenant General Jon Jensen, director of the Army National Guard, who said to the AP:
When you’re looking at 40,000 soldiers that potentially are in that unvaccinated category, absolutely there’s readiness implications on that and concerns associated with that, that’s a significant chunk.
Even though 40,000 troops make up just more than a tenth of the guard, it is still a significant enough portion to hinder the force's efficacy.
None of those dismissed would receive dishonorable discharges, and most individuals who have been dismissed from other forces have received general discharges that would allow them to rejoin the force at a later date should they choose to receive the vaccine.
Since there is no risk of dishonor for forces in the National Guard — who are part-time workers and don't necessarily rely on the job for their whole livelihood — the force itself is more at risk of harm than the people it would dismiss for choosing not to take the vaccine.
Even if all 40,000 troops in the Army National Guard are dismissed on June 30 and it has minimal impact on the efficacy of the force — which military officials think is unlikely — the vaccine mandate is responsible for hurting recruitment as well. In other words, the troops that face dismissal might not be replaced.
Thanks to @SecDef’s vax mandate, in addition to Army retention, Army recruitment is also failing:
— Rep. Mike Johnson (@RepMikeJohnson) June 28, 2022
The Army has met just 40% of its recruiting target for 2022 — DESPITE dropping the requirement to have a high school diploma or GED.
Over 40% of 18-24 year old men have refused the COVID vaccine. This is the Army’s target demographic.
— Rep. Mike Johnson (@RepMikeJohnson) June 28, 2022
In the Southern U.S. — which produces nearly half of enlistments — the proportion of unvaccinated young men is even higher.
These troops that would face dismissal are otherwise completely healthy — they simply choose not to get an inefficient vaccine for a virus with a low mortality rate. According to the CDC, there have been just over 6,000 COVID deaths for people aged 18-29 since the start of the pandemic in 2020. The only age group with fewer COVID deaths is the next youngest, 0-17. The number of deaths for people 18-29 is a third of the number of deaths for the 30-39 age group — about 18,000 — which is still far lower than the number of deaths in the next oldest age group, and so on. COVID accounts for about 4% of deaths for people aged 18-29. Comparatively, 11% of deaths for people aged 85 and older are COVID related.
This data tells us what we have known about COVID almost as long as it has been around — it's dangerous for the elderly, not for young people. And the elderly are not filling the ranks of the Army National Guard.
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