One of the ways Donald Trump managed to sweep the battleground states and capture a popular vote victory was by seriously disrupting the 2020 Democratic coalition. As we've explored previously, Trump ate into Biden's previous margins among key groups, flipping lots of 'swing' voters into his column. Much of the 'news' media is spinning a tale about widespread buyer's remorse among Trump voters, but the evidence for such a phenomenon is -- for now -- scant. As we highlighted last week, a recent "do over" 2024 election survey found...Trump once again defeating Kamala Harris, which, doesn't exactly make a case for electoral regret sweeping the nation. That said, Trump's approval ratings have continued to lose altitude, with the recent tariff drama stirring uncertainty and anxiety among many voters. The public's economic outlook has soured considerably, despite better-than-expected recent jobs and inflation reports.
The White House, and especially the Republican Party, need to pay attention to how voters are feeling ahead of next year's elections, so checking in on the swingiest voters from the swingiest states seems like a worthwhile endeavor. A fresh focus group of Biden-to-Trump voters in crucial Pennsylvania offers some interesting insights, via Axios (this panel was convened right before Trump paused many of the tariffs he'd announced on so-called 'liberation day'):
Most Pennsylvania swing voters in our latest Engagious/Sago focus groups stuck by President Trump through this week's drama over tariffs and the stock market, but say he must better explain his strategy and how long Americans should prepare for pain. Just two of these 13 Biden-to-Trump voters said Trump has made a good case for tariffs since he returned to the White House; 11 said he hasn't articulated enough or that they aren't sure of the end game. Many are prepared to put up with months of strain if it makes the country safer, brings jobs back to the U.S. or helps their long-term finances — but they want a clearer understanding of what will happen and why...Six of the 13 supported and one opposed Trump's "Liberation Day" rollout and reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trading partners, while the other six said they didn't know enough to formulate an opinion...Nine of 13 said they approve of Trump's job performance overall, but eight of 13 said they're more anxious about the state of the economy since Trump returned to the White House...One recurring theme in the panels was swing voters gave Trump credit for taking lots of action in his first three months, even if they didn't agree with some of those actions or his moves were legally challenged, rescinded or revised.
Meanwhile, this deep dive on the Pennsylvania electorate, and how Trump won there last year, paints another picture of shifting coalitions. The PA GOP just blew a state Senate special election in a district Trump won by double digits, so the current realignment (coupled with post-2024 complacency and apathy from many marginally-engaged GOP voters) is hardly a permanent or surefire path to victory. But it's still important for Republicans to understand how they won. The big takeaways from the BlueStateRed document: (1) Hispanics trending to Republicans was critical. Per this report, that effect represented the entire victory margin in Dave McCormick's Senate win, as well as the margins in each of the Keystone State's blue-to-red Congressional flips. Latino voters moving further right in Philadelphia was a major ingredient in Republicans' statewide triumphs. (2) A "working class black realignment," particularly in the Harrisburg area also played a role. (3) Jewish voters in the 'burbs migrated rightward, too, for reasons that should probably be fairly obvious.
Tending to the new, tentative coalition will be important for Republicans to maintain or build upon their achievements from last year in one of the most important states in the country. Part of the conclusion reads, "the old party coalitions are not coming back...Republicans must follow the map to understand and invest in our newest voters and the communities they represent. Simply put, their allegiances will determine whether we win or lose moving forward." I'll leave you with this, which compiles survey results that were in the field for months, but were just recently released. Not a perfect current snapshot, but interesting nevertheless:
Morning Consult: Trump net approval
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 11, 2025
🟢 North Carolina: +9
🟢 Georgia: +8
🟢 Nevada: +8
🟢 Arizona: +6
🟢 Pennsylvania: +3
🟢 Michigan: +1
🟤 Wisconsin: -1
——
Other States (highest to lowest)
🟢 Wyoming: +55
🟢 West Virginia: +35
🟢 Alabama: +31
🟢 Oklahoma: +31
🟢 North… pic.twitter.com/wTAp49Muef
Join the conversation as a VIP Member