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Tipsheet

Good News, Bad News in the New Fox Poll -- For Both Sides

Pool via AP

A brand new national poll from Fox News contains good news for President Donald Trump, at least in the major top line numbers.  Fox's headline: "Trump, Republicans at record-high ratings as Democrats falter." The fresh data, published this week, shows Trump tying his all-time high presidential approval rating in this specific polling series, hitting 49 percent.  The last time Trump hit that number was back in April 2020, in the disruptive and frightening early days of the COVID pandemic.  Back then, his approval vs. disapproval levels were dead even (49/49); now, he's slightly under water (49/51).  There are some potential red flags for Trump and his agenda in the rest of the data, but before we get to those, there's another major concern for Democrats in the survey:

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Congressional Democrats are sitting on a terrible 30 percent approval rating, substantially worse than their Republican counterparts.  This further reflects a trend we've seen in other polling, in which the opposition party has slid to at or near new public opinion lows.  CNN and NBC's most recent findings pegged Democrats' favorability in the upper 20s, which is abysmal.  Granted, some of that is driven by the party's own base expressing disgust with their performance, with not even a majority of Democrat-identifying respondents approving to their own party (by contrast, nearly nine in ten Republicans approve of the Congressional GOP).  Liberal anger is exemplified by the angry leftists flooding recent town hall meetings held by Democratic lawmakers:

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At a town hall Wednesday evening just outside Denver, Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., found himself on the receiving end of anger and criticism from voters for being too passive when it comes to battling Trump. One attendee tore into Bennet for voting to confirm several of Trump’s Cabinet nominees, including Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. “None of this feels like you’re fighting for us, for Colorado, for our kids, for our grandkids,” an attendee told Bennet as the crowd cheered. “The words are great, but I’m really not seeing any action.” Toward the beginning of the event — which Bennet held in Golden, alongside Rep. Brittany Pettersen, D-Colo. — attendees shouted for one full minute as Bennet attempted to calm the crowd.

A seething and divided coalition, plus extreme and incoherent policies, plus unserious flailing, equals terrible polling.  Democrats, as discussed yesterday, have some serious problems.  But Trump might, too, looking just beneath the surface of these stats.  In the screen grabs above, you can see that the president's approval on the economy and inflation -- issues that sunk the Biden administration, and on which Trump campaigned successfully -- he's underwater by double digits.  Americans are feeling very unsettled about the state of the US economy and overall prices.  It's extremely early in the term, so there's plenty of time for new policies to turn things around (Trump inherited a very shaky economy from Biden, of course).  But voters are also skeptical of whether the new administration's policies will actually help matters.  Here's a hodgepodge of findings, diving deeper into the poll:

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- A slim majority (51 percent) of voters oppose reducing the federal workforce.

- Fully 65 percent said they're concerned the Trump administration isn't putting enough planning into their cuts.

- Nearly seven-in-ten say increased tariffs will raise prices, with a majority saying new tariffs will Hirt the economy.

- An overwhelming majority (79 percent) say the US economy is fair or poor, with only one-in-five saying excellent or good.  That's the worst spread since the summer of 2023.

A large majority of Americans expect a recession this year, with a plurality stating that inflation is not at all under control. On the plus side, those who are satisfied with the general direction of the country has increased to its best level in a Fox poll since spring of 2021. Trump's approval on immigration is strongly in positive territory, as the overall issue has faded from the very top of Americans' concerns (likely because the crisis has been slashed by 96 percent through successful executive policies). And although Elon Musk's job approval vis-a-vis DOGE is underwater by 18 points, a substantial majority also agree that "almost all" or "a great deal" of government spending is wasteful, indicating support for DOGE's mission.

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