In 2024, the battleground state of Wisconsin was carried by Donald Trump over Kamala Harris, with the Republican winning by less than one percentage point. The US Senate race went the other way, with Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin squeaking through, also by less than a single percentage point. Democrats helped boost a third-party candidate who was on the ballot, whose tiny fraction of support ended up being a factor in swinging the race to Baldwin. If Republican Eric Hovde had mirrored Donald Trump's support, he would have won. In the 2022 midterm cycle, incumbent GOP Senator Ron Johnson survived his re-election race against a radical leftist, just as the sitting Democratic governor -- Tony Evers, who recently backed legislation that replaced the word 'mother' with 'inseminated person' -- also won again. Republicans control the legislature in Madison, as well as six of the state's eight Congressional seats. It's the veritable definition of a purple battleground.
Voters in the Badger State are about to face another consequential choice. Leftists won narrow 4-3 control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court in 2023, in a contest that could have been competitive, but ended up being a relative blowout. Democrats participated in droves; many right-leaning voters did not. The result was a flip in the ideological makeup of the court, whose new majority quickly started imposing its partisan agenda. On April 1, in a statewide election, voters will decide whether to keep the 4-3 'progressive' majority intact, or to restore a constitutionalist conservative majority. Their decision will have significant ramifications, including the very real possibility (openly stated as a goal by Democrats) of re-drawing Congressional maps in an effort to eat into or help erase House Republicans' razor thin majority in Washington. Also in peril is former Gov. Scott Walker's successful Act 10 reforms, which reduced the power of government union special interests and have saved taxpayers tens of billions of dollars. That legislative fight was won despite massive and disruptive protests by the Left, and was affirmed by a subsequent, rancorous, costly recall campaign (which Walker won). It was also upheld by the courts, but that could very well change if the current activist majority dismantles it. That would be terrible for the state, as National Review's editors explain:
The Wisconsin supreme court ruled that Act 10 was constitutional in 2014. Challenging the law again was futile until 2023 when progressives retook a 4–3 majority on the court. Almost immediately after that, the unions filed their lawsuit...the unions had shopped for the right venue for their new case, putting it before Dane County circuit court judge Jacob Frost, who dutifully ruled Act 10 unconstitutional last year. Frost was appointed to the court by sitting Democratic Governor Tony Evers and — far worse for judicial impartiality — had signed the recall petition against Walker over Act 10 in 2011. It’s appalling that this law, already litigated countless times in the courts and at the ballot box, could still be overturned by an activist judge in Madison, the state’s far-left bastion. But that’s where things stand, pending appeal to the state supreme court sometime this year.
Before Act 10, Wisconsin public employees did not contribute a penny to their pensions or health insurance. Act 10 said they had to pay half their pensions and 12.6 percent of their health insurance — still a much better deal than most private-sector workers get. The law also allowed school districts to shop around for health insurance rather than buying from the teachers’-union-run insurance monopoly that union contracts had previously demanded. These commonsense changes did not cause the quality of public education or other state services to decline, despite unions’ Chicken Little routine saying they would. One academic study even found that students had slightly better test scores and attendance rates in districts that decertified their unions than in ones that kept them. The MacIver Institute, a Wisconsin-based free-market think tank, estimates that Act 10 has saved Wisconsin taxpayers $31 billion since it was passed. And Wisconsin has one of the only fully funded pension systems in the country. Act 10 was a top-to-bottom win for Wisconsin taxpayers, and it was achieved by breaking unions’ power over the state government.
Recommended
All that actual progress could be wiped away if the Left prevails in a few weeks. For a spring election in an off-year, the stakes are high. And the battle is tight. The race pits a conservative former Attorney General against a left-wing judge with a troubling track record. Walker has been sounding the alarm, with various groups and campaigns highlighting her extremist record:
I’d run this ad over and over again. The families of the 6 and 7-year-old girls wanted longer sentences. Even the prosecutor from liberal Dane County wanted more time behind bars. Not Susan Crawford. Now this evil man lives near a school.
— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) February 12, 2025
That is crazy!#CrazyCrawford https://t.co/VSAmxGcGLa
Susan Crawford would guarantee a far-left majority on Wisconsin’s highest court to defend Democrat priorities, to protect sanctuary cities, stop deportations of illegal immigrants, and let criminals roam free.
— Republican State Leadership Committee (@RSLC) February 24, 2025
Susan Crawford is wrong for Wisconsin. pic.twitter.com/ITe9vDoo8h
On Oct 30, 2018, 3 evil people beat a 24-year-old for 20 minutes until he died. Judge Susan Crawford sentenced them. One is out. The other two will be soon.
— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) February 20, 2025
That’s crazy. #CrazyCrawford pic.twitter.com/kQ9BZQ85PU
A 5-year-old girl was raped. Susan Crawford let her abuser out on $500 bond. That makes her Catch and Release Crawford.
— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) February 27, 2025
That’s crazy. #CrazyCrawford https://t.co/rg5cEGLK45
In 2023, the Democrat-aligned 'progressive' judicial candidate vastly outspent her opponent, and her fairly comfortable was fueled by high-intensity, high-propensity Democratic turnout. This round appears to be shaping up as more competitive on all fronts, with an uncertain outcome. A new poll in the state offers mixed results:
📊 Wisconsin Poll by Marquette
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 5, 2025
President Trump
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 51%
Among Indies: 39-60
——
Brad Schimel fav-unfav
Overall: 29-32 (-3)
Certain to vote: 42-43 (-1)
Among Indies: 23-39 (-16)
—
Susan Crawford fav-unfav
Overall: 19-23 (-4)
Certain to vote: 33-32 (+1)…
Trump's approval is narrowly upside down among Wisconsinites, while both Supreme Court candidates are comparably underwater and little-known. Trump's tariffs are deeply unpopular. His decorations are deeply popular. A slim majority of respondents say Act 10 should be thrown out; a super-majority say voter ID requirements should stand. The Republican Party's image is mediocre (-5 favorability), whereas the Democrats are exceptionally disliked (-28 favorability). The survey suggests many voters aren't very dialed in to this race, though a deluge of advertising over the next few weeks could change that. Conservatives have a credible and solid candidate. 'Progressives' have thrived in lower-turnout elections throughout the Trump era, dating back to 2017. They will have their eye on the ball and their machine ready to go. Will right-leaning voters be able to counter those structural advantages? Scott Presler, lauded for his ground game work in Pennsylvania, has been consistently urging conservatives to pay serious attention to the April 1 Wisconsin fight, which has implications beyond just that critical state:
Wisconsin,
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) March 5, 2025
I am asking you to elect Brad Schimel to the Wisconsin Supreme Court on Tuesday, April 1st, 2025.
Please spread the word.
Today is day 38 of reminding Wisconsin voters
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) January 14, 2025
that they can flip the WI Supreme Court from 🔵🔜🔴
by voting on Tuesday, April 1st, 2025.
🗓️April 1st, 2025
👉Vote Brad Schimel
📍Wisconsin
🔗https://t.co/taVnaIjYKd pic.twitter.com/CuB9JufNgZ
The Right must be energized and engaged to have a good shot at this win. If they can pull off a conservative victory in this key contes -- in spite of the Left's general edge on money and low-propensity turnout -- that would be enormous, and quite concerning for the other side. By the same token, the wages of losing would be substantial, within and outside of Badgerland. I'll leave you with this somewhat familiar face:
🆘 Wisconsin 🆘
— Eric Bott (@EricJBott) February 25, 2025
How extreme is Susan Crawford?
David Hogg is here canvassing for Crawford.
Hogg supports:
✔️ Ending ICE (which means ending deportation of murderers and rapists)
✔️ Defunding the Police
✔️ Banning our guns
These are Crawford’s friends.
We must stop them. pic.twitter.com/dPBLBCIAIE
That would be this charmer and freshly-minted DNC vice chair:
Fuck Donald Trump, Fuck Elon Musk and Fuck the Federalist Society judges who enable them. https://t.co/2z6ctFtXyU
— David Hogg 🟧 (@davidhogg111) February 20, 2025
Join the conversation as a VIP Member