Some political observers are describing the Trump administration's early days as “shock and awe,” featuring a blistering barrage of executive orders, appointments and actions.
As Trump defenders and critics alike will largely agree, few of these moves have been major surprises. They've aligned with the president's campaign promises and rhetoric. Perhaps what has caught some people off guard, detractors especially, is the rapid rate and sheer volume of the moves. Leading up to Trump assuming office, we noted how public polling was pointing to something of a “honeymoon” for the incoming president, something he never got to enjoy in the period between his upset victory in 2016 and taking the oath of office in early 2017. This time has been different, and by the looks of it, the positive vibes are spilling over into the front end of Trump's presidency, too.
JL Partners, a British polling firm, came pretty close to nailing the 2024 outcome of our election, picking up on trends that many of the "prestige" pollsters did not. We discussed their work with one of their top associates late last year. That same firm just released new data — and at least for now, it looks like the Trump honeymoon is still rolling:
President Trump begins his second term in a strong position with the public: In stark contrast to 2017, 48% approved of the job President Trump was doing in the immediate run up to the inauguration, compared to just 39% who disapproved. Even 1 in 5 (22%) Democrats approved of the job that Trump was doing as President Elect, with under-30s, non-graduates and Republicans especially enthusiastic. And, people are more likely to say that their opinion of Trump has improved since the New Year than worsened (39% say their view has become more positive, compared to 24% who say more negative)...8 years on from their first stint in the White House, the Trumps are at their most popular to date: The President has his highest favorability rating to date, with 47% holding a favorable opinion compared to 47% who hold an unfavorable opinion. First Lady Melania Trump remains the most favorably viewed major picture, on a score of net +11, and is considered to be a better First Lady than Jill Biden. The most common words used to describe President Trump are ‘great’, ‘leader’ and ‘good,’ whilst Melania Trump is most associated with the word ‘beautiful.’
How much of this is a reflection of the public's recalibration of their attitudes about Trump, given the failures of the last four years? It's a major factor, the new numbers show:
Biden leaves office deep underwater and the most unpopular politician tested, with more than half (51%) of voters holding an unfavorable opinion. Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have both gone down in even Democrats’ eyes since the end of 2024, suffering a 16 point and 9 point drop respectively from where they were in December. More than 1 in 10 (14%) of Democrats say they disapprove of the job that Joe Biden is doing in his final weeks of Presidency. Americans say Joe Biden achieved ‘nothing’ as President, with even Democrats more likely to say ‘nothing’ than ‘good’ or the ‘economy.’
That said, it's not all about anti-Biden negativity. There is some meaningful enthusiasm for the Trump agenda, as well, with broad support for his top priorities on immigration:
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The public are optimistic about Trump’s domestic policy platform and his presidency: the word most used to describe feelings ahead of the January 20th inauguration is ‘excited,’ with ‘hopeful’ and ‘good’ also featuring prominently. There is strong support for most of Trump’s policy platform, and especially for his agenda on immigration. Tackling the border is the biggest priority, and Americans are behind President Trump’s plans: Americans’ biggest priority for Trump’s first 100 days is to ‘start mass deportation of illegal immigrants,’ and there is desire to see tough action taken as well as strong support for mass deportations (50% support compared to just 29% who oppose). Most measures polled to combat illegal immigration received net support, with the most popular being more federal spending on border law enforcement to speed up deportations, federal government action taken against ‘sanctuary cities’ and the US military to assist in deportations of illegal migrants.
Are these findings outliers? Not according to the latest batch from Morning Consult:
Morning Consult: Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump's handling of...
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 28, 2025
• National security: 55-34 (+21)
• Immigration: 56-36 (+20)
• The Economy: 53-36 (+17)
• Foreign policy: 52-36 (+16)
• Energy: 51-36 (+15)
• Taxes: 50-37 (+13)
• Trade: 50-37 (+13)
•… https://t.co/OVgBWV2GaK pic.twitter.com/L9dD6uh7Te
Trump has majority approval here overall, with above-water approval across nearly every issue. He's in plus territory by double digits on the biggest issues facing the country. YouGov also shows majority approval. It goes without saying that people might start getting antsy, and if outcomes aren't delivered in relatively short order, some of the goodwill could fade. That's the nature of politics. But Trump's positive image, and the optimism surrounding his second presidency, is something he's never experienced before. He's got political capital in droves at the outset of his new administration — how he uses it is the next big question. As mentioned elsewhere, these are also gruesome figures for the opposition:
An absolutely brutal @QuinnipiacPoll for Democrats:
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) January 29, 2025
Republican Party: 43% favorable, 45% unfavorable (-2)
Democratic Party: 31% favorable, 57% unfavorable (-26) pic.twitter.com/m0RgPmGWno
And because the political cycle's churn never really ends, I'll leave you with some new developments on the electoral front this week:
Republicans have lost the last 3 Senate races in MI by 6.5 points, 1.7 points, & 0.3 points. https://t.co/dGGRvtZXOz
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) January 28, 2025
Low turnout special flips a very red seat to blue — Dems continue to dominate in these sorts of elections. Lots of R momentum right now, but they’re still losing among the highest-propensity voters. https://t.co/V15tTnzlwa
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) January 29, 2025
The Democratic base will turn out. Every time. Republicans and Trump voters? Not so much. This dynamic matters a lot in off year and less-heralded elections, which obviously can hold great importance. As for the open Senate seat in Michigan, guess who's already circling?
lol this exact scenario is the entire reason why he abandoned his actual home state https://t.co/yr4wSiR7GM
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) January 28, 2025
