For more than a week, it's been clear that Republican challenger Dave McCormick -- who ran one of the very best campaigns in the whole country -- defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Bob Casey in Pennsylvania's US Senate election. As we noted in our big picture Senate analysis, Casey has coasted on his famous political surname throughout his career, and McCormick effectively attacked him for devolving into a weak, unproductive, partisan rubber stamp. Casey appeared to be fairly comfortably ahead in the contest for much of the contest, often leading by high single digits in the polls. But as the election approached, the gap closed considerably. The analysts at the Cook Political Report shifted this battle to 'tossup' status in late October. And once the votes came in, McCormick prevailed. But Casey has refused to concede. He enlisted the scheming assistance of Democratic elections lawyer Marc Elias to try to steal the election, or at least delay the mathematically inevitable. The Wall Street Journal editorial board scalded Casey and Elias in an essay this week:
The Associated Press and most other media have called the Senate race in Pennsylvania for Republican Dave McCormick. But never fear, Democrats, lawyer Marc Elias is on the case trying to steal the seat for incumbent Democrat Bob Casey. Did someone say “election denial”? Mr. Casey has refused to concede despite trailing by some 40,000 votes as we write this, and Mr. Elias has declared on X that the race isn’t over. The specialist who excavates controversial ballots for Democrats is at it again...Mr. McCormick’s margin could nonetheless fall below 0.5%, which would trigger an automatic recount under state law. His margin as of Sunday midday was slightly above that. That would give Mr. Elias a chance to try his legal shenanigans, which are likely to run the gamut from challenging votes for Mr. McCormick to searching for heretofore undiscovered ballots for Mr. Casey. Mr. Elias helped to steal a Senate seat in Minnesota for Al Franken in 2008 by finding a judge to count previously rejected ballots and overturn the lead of Republican Norm Coleman. The Elias method is to look for friendly judges who will rule in his favor. Pennsylvania has a Republican secretary of state who supervises elections but an especially partisan elected Democratic majority on the state Supreme Court. So far Gov. Josh Shapiro and other officials aren’t commenting on Mr. Elias.
The plan -- which won't work -- seems to be to get the race into the recount zone, then let the lawsuits fly, preferably in front of liberal judges. For several days, rumors swirled that outgoing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wasn't going to include McCormick in an orientation for new members. In a show of unity and force, the entire Senate Republican conference have posted statements of support for Senator-elect McCormick -- ranging from hard-charging conservatives like Mike Lee and Ted Cruz to more moderate members like Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Mitt Romney. They've all rallied around McCormick:
I’m willing to personally escort @DaveMcCormickPA into the Capitol for new-senator orientation
— Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee) November 10, 2024
I’d like to see how they’d keep him out if he literally walked into “the room where it happens” https://t.co/6grLl0eUcf
Chuck Schumer is an election denier.
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) November 11, 2024
Chuck, the country overwhelmingly rejected your petty tyranny when they voted you out of being the Majority Leader. Do the right thing and invite Senator-Elect McCormick to orientation. https://t.co/9jKCjVh5DT
I want to congratulate Senator-elect Dave McCormick, who the @AP has declared the winner of the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania. Looking forward to welcoming him to the Senate.
— Sen. Lisa Murkowski (@lisamurkowski) November 11, 2024
Congratulations to Senator-elect Dave McCormick from Pennsylvania. I look forward to welcoming him to the new member orientation in Washington this week.
— Sen. Susan Collins (@SenatorCollins) November 10, 2024
Even some soon-to-be former Democratic Senators joined the chorus. Translation -- 'it's over:'
In 2018 my race wasn’t called for 6 days. I jumped on a redeye to DC to make senate orientation-I learned so much & made lasting relationships that week.
— Kyrsten Sinema (@kyrstensinema) November 10, 2024
Dave McCormick & Ruben Gallego will be Senators for PA & AZ. They should be invited to orientation & start learning the job.
Senator-Elect McCormick has committed to putting our country first, working in a bipartisan way, and most importantly, committed to preserving the 60 vote threshold of the filibuster.
— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 10, 2024
It seems as though Casey and Elias are clinging to the false hope that provisional ballots would somehow save Casey's seat for Democrats. The math was never there, as even some Philadelphia officials were willing to publicly acknowledge. Indeed, the processing of provisional ballots in Philly turned out to be yet another blow to Casey:
Much lower margin and MUCH MUCH higher failure rate than Team Casey needed.
— Mark Davin Harris (@markdharris) November 12, 2024
That was nowhere close to the canyon Democrats needed to bridge, and many provisional ballots (those that are counted, as many are not) that come in from elsewhere in the state will break for McCormick, whose only-slightly-dented but still decisive lead will again move higher. Based on reported totals, Casey could have gotten 100 percent of the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh provisional ballots counted as valid (which would never happen) and won 100 percent of them (again, not happening), and still trailed McCormick -- to say nothing of the McCormick-friendly provisionals being processed elsewhere. This thing is so cooked that even Schumer relented and let the victor attend orientation, after all. Note the accurate title on McCormick's name card:
SPOTTED at Senate orientation pic.twitter.com/4kTUn9Dv0b
— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) November 12, 2024
DAVE MCCORMICK has now been invited to senate orientation, per a Schumer spokesman.
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) November 12, 2024
It seems as though the only person who isn't willing to admit the loss -- aside from the lawyers and consultants who are profiting handsomely from this humiliating, quixotic election denialism -- is Bob Casey himself. Sad stuff:
Across our Commonwealth, close to 7 million people cast their votes in a free and fair election.
— Bob Casey Jr. (@Bob_Casey) November 12, 2024
The American democratic process was born in Pennsylvania and that process will play out. pic.twitter.com/R2RirIa09j
It's somewhat understandable that a scion of political privilege may have a hard time grappling with his perceived birthright being taken from him, but that doesn't make his delusional entitlement any less embarrassing. I'm sure this was not the capstone to his political career that Casey was expecting, but he's certainly making his choices. No matter what, he's lost; he's just choosing to respond this way, which makes Pennsylvania voters' verdict on him seem all the more fitting.
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