Last evening, Fox News' pollster dropped four new surveys out of crucial Sunbelt states. The bottom line result? Extremely close contests across the board. All four states are neck-and-neck, with tiny differences -- within margin of error -- separating Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Harris leads by a point or two in three of the states polled, while Trump holds a similarly insignificant lead in the fourth. The inescapable overall takeaway from these numbers is that the presidential contest is a complete toss-up. Even if these polls are off by one or two points -- let alone more, as we've repeatedly seen in recent cycles -- Trump could easily lead in most or all of these states, or Harris could be up in all four. Statistically, these are all ties. There's a positive and negative outlook on these, from Trump's perspective, which we'll discuss below.
But first, here are the numbers themselves, juxtaposed with the most recent Trump-Biden Fox polling in the relevant states, followed by my broad analysis of the data on Fox & Friends earlier:
Across the sunbelt, Trump was leading Biden relatively comfortably. The race has changed. Very tight across all four states — all margin of error (RV) — with Harris slightly ahead in 3 of 4. All post-DNC: https://t.co/qwtolkMXNE pic.twitter.com/7xlkZUdgAN
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) August 28, 2024
Joined @foxandfriends earlier to discuss the new Fox Sun Belt polling. The old race is dead and buried. The new race is as close as it gets. Game on: pic.twitter.com/5fH339GulU
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) August 29, 2024
Trump and some Republicans have seemed stymied and stuck in the past, wallowing in the race they likely had wrapped up against a since-ejected Democratic nominee. The new reality is stark: Harris has the momentum, is tied (or narrowly leading or trailing) in all the battlegrounds, and has a significant chance of winning. The modest but real gap Trump had opened over Joe Biden has been diminished, totally closed, or overtaken by Harris. She is doing what she needs to do in order to prevail. Astoundingly, she has a one-point edge within these states on the question of which candidate represents change. Joe Biden's approval and economic approval ratings are bad. The right track/wrong track numbers are abysmal. Kamala Harris is the siting Vice President and co-pilot of the Biden-Harris agenda. If she can somehow get away with framing herself as the agent of change, she'll get elected.
On the flip side, there's a case to be made that Harris has peaked (note: a poor Trump showing in the debate could reignite or sustain her momentum). She's enjoyed almost six weeks of nonstop 'hero-worship-no-scrutiny' coverage from an embarrassingly slavish press. She's answered almost no questions about anything. As that changes, people will be reminded of why they're so unhappy with the Biden-Harris administration, why her favorability rating was so poor as recently as June (pre-'vibes'-fueled propaganda blitz), and why she's long been widely viewed as a ham-fisted lightweight even within her own party. As her record actually enters the chat, and ads like this hit, does she level off -- or even lose some altitude?
NEW: New Trump ad shows Kamala Harris "debating" herself with her previous comments on the economy under her leadership with Biden.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 26, 2024
Kamala 1: "Everyday prices are too high. Food, rent, gas, back-to-school clothes..."
Kamala 2: "That is called Bidenomics."
Kamala 1: "A loaf of… pic.twitter.com/weLFpmTwLK
We noted recently that Trump has finally stopped his idiotic, petty, backwards-looking, grievance-fueled war against Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp -- a needed, if belated, decision. Kemp boasts and impressive operation in his must-win state, having defeated a candidate with lots of similarities to Kamala Harris by eight points in the midterms. Kemp has also built one of the best gubernatorial approval ratings in the country. Trump needs Kemp, and Kemp wants to help. That hatchet needs to stay buried:
Recommended
New @FoxNews poll indicates #GOP Gov. @BrianKempGA approval-disapproval rating stands at 64%-34%. Full poll here: https://t.co/2l5p2CJdpW And my interview yesterday with Kemp here: https://t.co/26qtMRL6zo #2024Election #GApol #FoxNews pic.twitter.com/F0CZCYZs70
— Paul Steinhauser (@steinhauserNH1) August 28, 2024
Meanwhile, the swing state polling Leah highlighted earlier only underscores how extremely competitive this election is right now. Coin-flip margins across the board:
SWING STATE POLLS with @thehill
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) August 29, 2024
2024 Presidential Election
AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 47%
GA: Harris 49%, Trump 48%
MI: Harris 50%, Trump 47%
NV: Harris 49%, Trump 48%
NC: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
PA: Trump 48%, Harris 48%
WI: Trump 49%, Harris 48%https://t.co/6kUM620BMz pic.twitter.com/ejf3DKXcYU
In addition to the national polls we analyzed earlier in the week, we have numbers like this, further confirming how close things are:
#New @YahooNews General Election poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 27, 2024
🔵 Harris 47%
🔴 Trump 46%
Last poll - 🟡 Tie
YouGov #A - 1197 RV - 8/26
Harris has to be pleased with the progress she's made, with a gigantic assist from the 'news' media. But I'll leave you with this quote from a Democratic pollster, in case you missed it: "If the polling errors are anywhere close to what they were in 2016 and 2020, then Trump is in the lead right now.” Big if, but it's more than plausible.
