The sickening events of Saturday evening will reverberate for some time. As many others have already observed, the difference between an outrageous and frightening, but blessedly limited, tragedy -- and a nation-wrenching atrocity was less than one inch. The counter-factual scenario is almost unbearable to contemplate. Our hearts ache for the loved ones of the innocent man who was murdered by former President Donald Trump's would-be assassin. We pray for the wounded. And we give thanks that Trump survived, barely scathed. As I said in the immediate aftermath of the blood-stained chaos in Pennsylvania, we were already facing a combustible political climate before somebody came very close to killing the leading candidate for president. We are not in a good place as a country, and those of us who care about America should pray for her:
Pray for our nation tonight. My on-air comments from earlier this evening: pic.twitter.com/tJn5hyrAi3
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 14, 2024
On Sunday morning, as we were all still digesting what transpired -- and what almost did -- I was asked about the profound political opportunity with which Trump has now been presented. I responded by applauding Trump's response thus far, which very much must include his remarkable instinct to pump his fist to the crowd within seconds of the shots ringing out, blood streaking his face. He wanted to reassure and inspire his audience, even as he was being rushed to safety by his security detail (there will be some very uncomfortable questions that the Secret Service must answer in the coming days, with significant accountability needed over an extraordinary failure). This photo will go down in history:
An instantly iconic image pic.twitter.com/1YV5GOwC5E
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 13, 2024
Trump's public statements since the incident have also been quite good:
— Team Trump (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@TeamTrump) July 14, 2024
New from 45–47… pic.twitter.com/9RN6eJ17TC
— Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸🦅 (@DanScavino) July 14, 2024
Even these images of the former president descending the staircase from his plane, hours after the assassination attempt, were stirring, under the circumstances:
pic.twitter.com/B9yR3SLQJV
— Margo Martin (@margommartin) July 14, 2024
The Wall Street Journal's editors offered this yesterday:
The shooter alone is responsible for his actions. But leaders on both sides need to stop describing the stakes of the election in apocalyptic terms. Democracy won’t end if one or the other candidate is elected. Fascism is not aborning if Mr. Trump wins, unless you have little faith in American institutions. We agree with former Attorney General Bill Barr’s statement Saturday night: “The Democrats have to stop their grossly irresponsible talk about Trump being an existential threat to democracy—he is not.” One great risk is that the shooting in Butler, Pa., will cause some on the right to seek violent revenge. This is where Mr. Trump and the Republicans have an obligation—and a political opportunity—at their convention in Milwaukee and through November.
If they weren’t already, Americans after Saturday will be looking for stable, reassuring leadership. The photo of Mr. Trump raising his fist as he was led off stage by the Secret Service with a bloody face was a show of personal fortitude that will echo through the campaign. No one doubts his willingness to fight, and his initial statement Saturday night was a notable and encouraging show of restraint and gratitude. His opportunity now is to present himself as someone who can rise above the attack on his life and unite the country. He will make a mistake if he blames Democrats for the assassination attempt. He will win over more Americans if he tells his followers that they need to fight peacefully and within the system. If the Trump campaign is smart, and thinking about the country as well as the election, it will make the theme of Milwaukee a call to political unity and the better angels of American nature.
This admonition from Trump's campaign to staffers hit some hopeful notes. I pointed out on-air that in the wake of these stunning developments and the resulting tumult, consequential political decisions are being made right now:
Amid shocking and disturbing events, significant political decisions are being made right now — from @AmericaNewsroom: pic.twitter.com/CoDhA2h8kv
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 14, 2024
The Vice Presidential selection is a big one, but we all knew that was coming. Perhaps more important at the moment are choices about how, when, and where Trump will publicly emerge for the first time since the attempt on his life, what he will say, and how he will say it. The RNC agenda is almost certainly being re-shuffled, including this alteration. I'd submit that House Majority Leader Steve Scalise may be a wise addition in a featured speaking slot. Trump's acceptance speech is undoubtedly being re-written (he may want to take some cues from the beautiful statement his wife put out). On a political level, this is perhaps the operative question of the moment:
Biggest political question in the coming weeks is what Trump does with the high ground he was hoisted up on by serendipity.
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) July 14, 2024
Trump and his team should choose wisely, both for the country and for their campaign. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are also wrestling with choices. My instinct after the shooting was that all the internal drama about trying to replace Biden would need to pause for a time, increasing the likelihood that Biden will formally become his party's nominee next month. That instinct appears to have been correct:
Top Democratic sources believe that Democrats who had thoughts about challenging President Biden are now standing down "because of this fragile political moment," @CostaReports reports.
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) July 14, 2024
Concerns about Biden's debate performance "faded almost instantly" after the attempted… pic.twitter.com/ZS5NQAjxpi
Sunday also brought a flurry of new polls, all of which were already out of date upon their publication. CBS showed Trump leading across seven swing states, but only by slim margins. NBC's top-line number (Trump ahead by two) was unchanged since April. Fox's survey contained minor movement toward Trump, who edged back into a tiny lead. All of this data was post-debate. None of it, obviously, accounted for post-assassination-attempt public sentiment. It is possible that Trump (especially if he displays strong leadership and reassuring restraint) will benefit from a polling bounce after surviving a murder attempt on live television, perhaps coupled with a convention bump. I am not convinced that the polling will move dramatically, or that any shifts will be long-lasting, however. Trump's felony convictions barely moved the needle, and Biden's disastrous debate shifted the numbers by maybe a few percentage points. Truly seismic events haven't put much of a dent into public opinion about this race, and this latest one may not either. One major difference, however, is that Trump's legal peril and Biden's infirmity were both baked in with voters prior to those major events. The assassination attempt was shocking and unanticipated. That could make a difference in terms of public reaction.
Moving forward in the short term, any movement toward Trump can and will be attributed to sympathy and factors beyond Joe Biden's control -- as opposed to continued fallout from his catastrophic debate flop. And considering that none of the new polls suggest Harris would out-perform Biden against Trump, it feels like the 'dump Joe' movement has suffered a significant setback. It may re-emerge, but time is of the essence, and all of this buys Biden valuable time. I'll leave you with this:
Fundraiser by Meredith ORourke : Support For Butler PA Victims - President Trump Authorized
— Morgan Ortagus (@MorganOrtagus) July 14, 2024
Meredith works for Pres Trump so this is legitimate. Please consider donating https://t.co/edEK4Wn4vU
'DIED A HERO': Trump rally victim, a former fire chief, heroically shielded his wife and daughters from bullets. Praised as "the very best of us," he has become a symbol of bravery. Everything we know about Corey Comperatore. https://t.co/MVjxSub9e4 pic.twitter.com/6OOak1vWtw
— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 14, 2024
UPDATE - Another (pre-shooting) poll points to a competitive race in which Trump is slightly favored:
🇺🇲 2024 GE: NYT/Siena (#1)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 15, 2024
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 48% (+3)
🟦 Biden: 45%
—
VIRGINIA
🟦 Biden: 48% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 45%
#1 (3.0/3.0) | 1,532 LV | July 9-12https://t.co/O6LrblHFHq pic.twitter.com/BjZK8Q6XTP
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