MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN -- The first GOP presidential debate of the 2024 cycle takes place in a matter of hours, and eight candidates will be onstage this evening (in alphabetical order): Governor Doug Burgum, Governor Chris Christie, Governor Ron DeSantis, Ambassador Nikki Haley, Governor Asa Hutchinson, Vice President Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Senator Tim Scott. Former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner, will not attend the forum and has stated that he won't be debating at all during the primary season. He remains technically ineligible to appear, having refused to pledge support for the ultimate Republican nominee -- though others have also played rhetorical games to justify signing that same pledge in order to qualify. A number of other declared candidates didn't achieve the requisite metrics (on donors and polling) to appear tonight, though some have claimed to have done so. At least one is grousing about the rules.
Each participant will arrive armed with a game plan, with each campaign hoping to achieve 'a moment' that will vault their candidate higher in the polls. Right now, state and national polling demonstrates the dynamic of this nominating contest is Trump as the runaway frontrunner, distantly trailed everyone else. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails manageably in a pair or new Iowa polls, but the former president still leads by double digits in each. There will be a few men standing behind podiums tonight who have even less of a chance than the others of being nominated. Burgum's team more or less bought his way into the debate, and Hutchinson is running a milquetoast anti-Trump campaign without Christie's flair or traction. But to one extent or another, everyone up there is currently something of a long shot. That's just the reality, and it's why the leader in the clubhouse isn't bothering to show up.
There will be some interesting storylines to follow, of course, like whether Ramaswamy can handle the glare of more serious scrutiny and continue his rise, and whether Haley, Scott or Pence can break out of their relative holding patterns with a star performance. How will Christie channel his prosecutorial 'confront Trump' energy, without the man actually in the building? But based on my analysis of the race, the candidate who still remains best situated to mount a real challenge to Trump is Florida's governor. That's also the obvious assessment of Trump and his campaign, given their singular focus in attacking Ron DeSantis at every opportunity. As DeSantis told me recently, "when I was at the Iowa State Fair with Kim Reynolds, that’s when [the Trump campaign] did their counter-program. I think he was on the ground for 45 or 50 minutes. I was the only candidate he cared about in Iowa. He came because I was there and he wanted to try to take some of the attention away from us." That's clearly true.
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DeSantis has raised money, has secured a growing list of endorsements, enjoys a locked and loaded SuperPAC behind him, and has occupied second place in virtually every national poll. He is also theoretically positioned to be supported or at least accepted by a significant number of Trump fans, while consolidating the non-Trump vote as a viable alternative. But that hasn't happened. He's struggled to build support, as the Trump base digs in behind their candidate and other types of Republicans are unimpressed with DeSantis' Trump-base-focused (and largely unsuccessful) pandering. But the Floridian's campaign has made some major changes in recent weeks, changing leadership, approach, and focus. He's garnering more positive reviews on the ground in must-win Iowa, committing to more of a grind-it-out retail campaign, while returning to more bread-and-butter issues -- as reflected in a revamped stump speech.
A campaign with sky-high expectations can survive early stumbles and a highly-publicized reboot. But needing a post-reboot reboot (a la Kamala Harris 8.0) could prove fatal. DeSantis needs to turn in a strong, crisp, disciplined, appealing debate performance tonight. He needs clear, sustained positive momentum to point to, and emerging from this event with some wind at his back wouldn't just be a nice development for him; at this point, it feels essential. For that reason, he'll be in the crosshairs. Rivals who want to knock him down and possibly supplant him will likely come after him throughout the program. How he stays on message, doesn't lose his cool, and parries the criticisms represents a major test. If he passes it with aplomb, the narrative around his campaign could turn more positive again. A middling performance could be spun either way. A poor showing could trigger a downward spiral.
That may sound a bit melodramatic, and perhaps it is. But this does feel like a big moment of truth on whether DeSantis has a real chance to emerge as a viable potential nominee this cycle, or whether the campaign as a whole will ultimately go the way of its glitchy, hyper-online launch debacle. Team DeSantis seems to understand this. Leading up to this debate, the campaign has been fairly aggressively leaning into the pressure and expectations:
…and on Team DeSantis *raising* expectations ahead of Wednesday’s debate here: pic.twitter.com/4THGz4jcPR
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) August 22, 2023
I'll leave you with DeSantis addressing a large crowd of supporters at a pre-debate send-off event in Florida:
When I’m president, we will crack down on prosecutors, like those funded by George Soros, who reject the rule of law and refuse to hold criminals accountable.
— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) August 22, 2023
We cannot succeed as a country if every city is a total hellhole. pic.twitter.com/cSIUt1MmTo
How will DeSantis 2.0 look under the brightest lights of the campaign to date? How will others distinguish themselves as they try to maneuver past him in Republican nominating surveys? Tune in tonight -- 9pm Eastern on Fox News Channel -- to find out. Finally, if one or more candidates have breakout performances, will there be a lasting impact? Trump seems determined to squash as much of the next-day coverage as possible. Showing up for a mugshot after an indictment is never on anyone's wishlist, but if you have no choice, using the moment to again dominate coverage and crowd out any potential challengers' media oxygen is certainly a silver lining -- which is why I believe the timing of tomorrow's booking in Georgia is strategic.
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