One of the last remaining moderate Democrats in Congress burnished his independent credentials back home in his deep red state in late 2021, swooping in to (almost single-handedly) kill the Biden agenda. But months later, that same Democrat shocked DC by unveiling a surprise deal cut behind closed doors with Chuck Schumer, resurrecting key elements of that same agenda. The result was the so-called 'Inflation Reduction Act,' and its bloating Green New Deal spending and historic expansion and empowerment of the Internal Revenue Service. Upon further review, the folks back home were not impressed. The ostensibly moderate and independent Democrat didn't seem so moderate or independent anymore, handing his party an unexpected legislative gift in the run-up to key election. Public opinion instantly soured. And the politician in question, West Virginia Senator Joe Minchin, has been backpedaling ever since. He's even threatened to try to repeal his own bill, citing 'betrayals' from his party, which everyone saw coming.
Ironically, if the current debt ceiling deal between President Biden and Speaker McCarthy is enacted, a version of Manchin's permitting reform would be delivered -- no thanks to Schumer, of course. The bill also eliminates Manchin/Schumer's IRS enforcement spending increase for this year -- no thanks to either of those men, of course. If and when Manchin tries to tout either or both of these potential developments, I suspect that spin will fall on many deaf ears belonging to West Virginia voters. It looks like anything that may happen between now and November 2024 might be categorized in the 'too little, too late' file for Manchin, whose skillful and tenuous dance as a red state Democrat appears to be coming to an end. There's a long way to go, of course, and things can change, but these are just horrific numbers:
In a new poll from East Carolina University conducted May 22-23 with 957 registered WV voters, Gov. Jim Justice (R) would beat U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D) 54% to 32% in a head-to-head match-up for U.S. Senate in 2024, with 13% undecided and 1% voting for another candidate.
— Steven Allen Adams (@stevenadamswv) May 30, 2023
Those are close to 'career extinction' levels of support. One of the few factors that could conceivably boost Manchin back into contention (aside from possibly drawing a much less popular opponent than Gov. Justice) is the opportunity to dash Democratic dreams on a massive stage, with very high stakes. But such opportunities are less likely after the 2022 cycle, in which Democrats netted another Senate seat. In a 50-50 chamber, Manchin held immense power. His defection on anything likely meant Republican victory. But at 51-49, his influence is diminished. Even if he were to join united Republicans in a major upcoming political fight, that would only yield a tie, assuming the rest of the Democrats (including Sinema) line up together. We know who gets the tie-breaking vote in the Senate. And teaming up with the GOP, but losing, wouldn't have the impact that Manchin may be desperate for.
We've seen a run on Democratic Senate retirements in recent weeks, but all in seats that are highly likely to remain in blue hands. If Manchin's fortunes continue to look brutal, few would be surprised to see him pull the plug. He doesn't want to end his career with a decisive loss in the state that has elected him to multiple offices. There's growing speculation that he might wave farewell to his Senate seat (all but guaranteeing that it flips red next year -- Republicans would need to flip at least one more seat to regain a majority in the upper chamber) and instead pursue a quixotic third-party presidential bid instead:
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is stepping up his criticism of President Biden’s leadership, stirring speculation that the maverick Democrat may challenge Biden as a third-party candidate in 2024. Manchin notes he has had a 12-year relationship with No Labels, the centrist political group that is trying to gain access to the ballot in all 50 states to open a path for a third-party candidate to run for president...Asked about talk that he could run nationwide on the No Labels ticket, Manchin said “people are starving, starving to work together.” He said voters are sick of “this constant, daily routine of everyone’s against everybody and everybody’s fighting and arguing.” “Let’s be for the country and get something done,” he said. He has repeatedly declined to knock down chatter that he may run for president as a third-party candidate and told reporters last week he won’t make a decision about his political future until the end of the year.
So we will be treated to speculation for half-a-year, as Manchin hints he may run nationally and declines to commit to seeking re-election in a seat that could well be slipping away. I'll leave you with this. The top line margins aren't that interesting to me. What's more interesting is Biden sitting in the low-40's in vote share:
🇺🇲 2024 Presidential Election Poll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 28, 2023
(R) Trump: 42% (+1)
(D) Biden: 41%
(I) Manchin: 9%
.
(D) Biden: 42% (+4)
(R) DeSantis: 38%
(I) Manchin: 8%
⦿ Echelon (A/B) | n = 1,035 LV
⦿ 05/22-25 | R38/D37/I35 | ±3.9%https://t.co/8WxshT6ESv pic.twitter.com/j4uAoHti7v
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