America will be grappling with the aftershocks of COVID-related school closures for years, as nearly an entire generation of kids was subjected to learning loss and social isolation at the hands of adults. We've been covering this issue for many months, and the evidence continues to roll in. This is just devastating, and the devastation appears to be most acute in places where actual science was ignored, in favor of politicized 'safety.' The New York Times summarizes the top-line outcomes:
U.S. students in most states and across almost all demographic groups have experienced troubling setbacks in both math and reading, according to an authoritative national exam released on Monday, offering the most definitive indictment yet of the pandemic’s impact on millions of schoolchildren. In math, the results were especially devastating, representing the steepest declines ever recorded on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, known as the nation’s report card, which tests a broad sampling of fourth and eighth graders and dates to the early 1990s. In the test’s first results since the pandemic began, math scores for eighth graders fell in nearly every state. A meager 26 percent of eighth graders were proficient, down from 34 percent in 2019. Fourth graders fared only slightly better, with declines in 41 states. Just 36 percent of fourth graders were proficient in math, down from 41 percent...Reading scores also declined in more than half the states, continuing a downward trend...
President Biden's Education Secretary described the results as "appalling and unacceptable" -- words that ring hollow, given the reality that Democrats and their teachers unions patrons are largely responsible for the most harm to students. State-by-state data is messy and uneven in the latest numbers (it's not perfectly 'clean' that places that stayed closed for longer automatically performed worse, or vice versa), but some observers are seeing certain patterns:
And note that the declines in math scores are correlated with school closures. The longer a state's schools stayed closed, the worse the drop in NAEP math scores, on average. https://t.co/CeAkineeIi
— Jason Bedrick (@JasonBedrick) October 24, 2022
10 points on the NAEP is considered one grade level, so this means that 4th grade students whose classes were entirely or mostly online are about one grade level behind those who had in-person instruction. https://t.co/7Q3AgZ97wL
— Jason Bedrick (@JasonBedrick) October 24, 2022
NEW DATA: Changes in 4th grade math scores since 2019:
— Corey A. DeAngelis (@DeAngelisCorey) October 24, 2022
Public: -5 points
Catholic: 0 points pic.twitter.com/fNk1osipq2
Another billboard for school choice. It also looks like the failed "remote learning" experiment was especially detrimental to already-lower-performing students:
Remote learning was much tougher for lower-performing than higher-performing students. pic.twitter.com/GSNSeSVNXA
— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 24, 2022
Some on the Left are trying to downplay the test results, or at least claim that the drops were inevitable 'because of the pandemic:'
"It's very important that no one be held responsible for this"
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) October 24, 2022
- The people responsible for this pic.twitter.com/maPfP89mS9
There is no evidence that having classrooms shuttered for a year-and-a-half in many places had any significant impact whatsoever on keeping people alive. Schools were not major vectors for COVID transmission, but the myriad harms to children associated with "remote learning" are inarguable. Also, the pandemic didn't force lengthy school closures, especially in the 2020-21 academic year; governmental responses to the pandemic did. Because the new state-by-state data doesn't show neat, perfect correlations between school closures and falling scores, apologists for school closures are declaring victory, claiming that the data "proves" that students' performance dropped no matter what policies they were living under. But a vast raft of data -- much more specific and granular data -- shows just the opposite. Bookmark some of this information, because many on the Left will be denying it for years to come:
This would look better as a county map- but looking at the % of In person learning on the left, and Election Map on the right- it's obvious. Democrat leaning areas closed schools ,and kept them closed.https://t.co/r1GXAIQywH
— Jösh Stevenson (@ifihadastick) October 25, 2022
10/ pic.twitter.com/cnuFDJLpdA
Fortunately, we have many studies that use student-level data and have access to administrative records about mode of instruction and can directly examine differences by mode. They all show significant negative effects of distance learning.
— Vladimir Kogan (@vkoganpolisci) October 25, 2022
Bottom line: The evidence on mode of instruction -- that students who were online learned less than those in person -- is overwhelming. We don't need NAEP data to answer this question, we have much better evidence and already knew the answer.
— Vladimir Kogan (@vkoganpolisci) October 25, 2022
(1/4) This argument is flawed. State = crude proxy for “going remote" (even worse: “The South”). Better analysis: scientists at @HarvardCEPR assessed number weeks each school district was remote in 2020-21. The more weeks spent remote, the larger the drop in test scores. For ex: https://t.co/cyVBTPtO9G pic.twitter.com/4832QMwVR7
— Lilia Cortina (@LiliaCortina) September 5, 2022
The NAEP scores and NYT article are misleading a lot of people to conclude remote school didn't correlate with lower scores. That's bc state data are too crude
— David Zweig (@davidzweig) October 25, 2022
Multiple analyses comparing districts show an overt correlation btwn time out of school and learning loss
Thread: /1 https://t.co/6PH96qXLS9 pic.twitter.com/tm6dhYplf3
Meanwhile in Sweden, whose anti-lockdown and anti-closure policies were venemously criticized at the time, a major study found no evidence of learning loss among Swedish students:
Let's check the control.https://t.co/zyNZvEDn2K pic.twitter.com/ZdisKgH6VF
— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 24, 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to worldwide school closures, with a risk of learning loss. Sweden kept primary schools open, but it is unknown whether student and teacher absence and pandemic-related stress factors affected teaching and student progress negatively. In this study, reading assessment data from 97,073 Swedish primary school students (grades 1-3) were analysed to investigate potential learning loss. Results showed that word decoding and reading comprehension scores were not lower during the pandemic compared to before the pandemic, that students from low socio-economic backgrounds were not especially affected, and that the proportion of students with weak decoding skills did not increase during the pandemic. Study limitations are discussed. We conclude that open schools benefitted Swedish primary school students.
Other data has shown that some of the harshest lockdown states, with the longest school closures, had the worst outcomes for residents, combining mortality, economic and educational factors. Florida's governor used the occasion of the falling test scores' publication to emphasize his position that the Sunshine State was right to open schools in the fall of 2020:
We kept schools open in 2020, and today’s NAEP results once again prove that we made the right decision.
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) October 24, 2022
In Florida, adjusted for demographics, 4th grade students are #1 in both Reading and Math. pic.twitter.com/UiJ2hSGURv
I'll leave you with one of the pandemic's greatest villains, who used her special interest group's political clout and money to alter the official Science, now playing the role of an economist. She effectively acted as a public health expert, and now she's an economic adviser, spouting Democratic spin:
I know it doesn’t feel it.. but , “the economy remains strong by many measures. Unemployment, at 3.5 percent, is near historic lows and many Americans are getting pay raises." #AFTvotes https://t.co/bOm1Pf0uyg
— Randi Weingarten 🇺🇦🇺🇸💪🏿👩🎓 (@rweingarten) October 23, 2022
The economy contracted for two straight quarters, a technical recession. It likely grew last quarter, with experts warning that a deeper recession is likely on the horizon. And the 'pay raises' are being wiped out by inflation, as real wages are down year over year. Leave it to Randi to choose a variation of Democrats' worst-performing talking point to try to spare her party more electoral pain. May she be as successful as she was on behalf of Terry McAuliffe in Virginia. And, of course, she's spiking the football over the new awful test scores, willfully ignoring the mountain of data that directly contradicts her bogus theory. This is harsh but accurate:
Gaslighting propagandist seeks to minimize her direct role in harming children on a mass scale, for political reasons. Read the facts: https://t.co/9cK4bw3mVS https://t.co/eDUAGCWBlT
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 25, 2022
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