Are they right to be panicked? Premature. Worried? Absolutely. Democrats' expectation of dominance within the Hispanic vote has been steadily eroding over the last few years, and Republicans are looking to capitalize on the shift. GOP organizations have finally started doing far more than merely offering top-line messaging to Hispanics, in the months leading up to elections. They're making a more personal and lasting investment. Here's one example from earlier this year:
A center that opened in Houston this week caters to a Hispanic neighborhood. Like the other community centers, it offers a variety of events and services and gives insight into Republican Party beliefs. “At the end of the day, we know that Hispanics belong in the Republican Party,” said Macarena Martinez, the RNC’s Texas communications director. “We’re grounded within the same ideology of safety, freedom and economic opportunity.” The community centers host movie nights, parties, prayer vigils, and toy and food drives during the holiday season.
The more aggressive outreach -- often spearheaded by Latinas -- is paying dividends, and progressives are getting antsy over electoral outcomes like this, and polling data like this:
Biden approval with Hispanics, per NYT/Siena poll:
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) July 12, 2022
32% approve
63% disapprove
Biden-Trump matchup, among Hispanics:
Biden 42%
Trump 39%https://t.co/GLX9cRhSZM
Politico reports on Texas Republicans' ramped-up efforts to press their advantage, as they attempt to burnish their newfound viability among Latinos:
The GOP is looking to cement its inroads into what was a deep blue stronghold while Democrats want to shore up one of their few reliable pockets of votes in the Lone Star State. The GOP appears to be on offense in Hidalgo. While Hillary Clinton bested former President Donald Trump by a nearly 40-point margin in 2016, that gap fell by more than half, to 17 points, in President Joe Biden’s 2020 win over Trump. Another warning light for Democrats came last year when Javier Villalobos became the first Republican in nearly 25 years to be elected as McAllen’s mayor...Latinos, who make up 93 percent of the population in Hidalgo, are increasingly voting according to their socially conservative beliefs, according to local GOP and Democratic leaders. Republicans in Hidalgo are appealing to Latino voters with a message that is anti-abortion, pro-church, pro-work and pro-family. They’re also criticizing Democrats’ handling of the border and immigration issues. The Republican National Committee has even opened a Hispanic community center in the county that hosts activities such as movies and religious services.
The exit polling after November is going to be fascinating. And it's not just Hispanic-heavy areas in which Republicans are starting to play more intensely this cycle. Both the national environment and their internal polling clearly suggest that "safer" blue districts may end up providing previously-unexpected pick-up opportunities in 2022:
NEW: Biden's unpopularity is bringing deep blue seats into play for Rs, who are now eyeing turf the pres won by double digits
— Ally Mutnick (@allymutnick) July 11, 2022
Some GOP polling:#IN01 (Biden +9) his approval is -19#PA07 (Biden +1) his approval is -32!#NV01 (Biden +9) his approval is -14https://t.co/Buk0dO5Mye
Recent GOP polling in roughly a dozen swing districts offers a bleak portrait of how President Joe Biden’s anemic approval ratings are threatening to doom battle-tested swing-seat incumbents — and nudge once-safe districts into the middle of the danger zone...With just four months until the midterms, Democrats were already on the defensive in at least 30 highly competitive districts. But Biden’s toxicity has given the GOP optimism about seriously contesting a fresh crop of about a dozen seats that the president won in 2020 by 9 points or more — from western Rhode Island to California’s Central Valley to the suburbs of Arizona’s capital. The result is a House map that has expanded to an uncomfortable place for Democrats. Survey data obtained by POLITICO shows the president underwater by double-digit margins in 11 districts he carried...Democrats insist Biden numbers alone won’t seal the fates of their candidates, some of whom have built up their own identities. Still, as they privately grimace at the polling, many hope the bad news has bottomed out.
What do they say about the quality of hope as a strategy? I discussed Democrats' woes on Special Report:
On Biden’s abysmal polling numbers @SpecialReport pic.twitter.com/Ys9AQU2cxE
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 12, 2022
As for the party's growing concerns about Latino voters, I'm sure this will solve everything:
At a "Latinx IncluXion" conference, Jill Biden says the Hispanic community is as "unique" as tacos.pic.twitter.com/Vb5wJyYGWB
— RNC Latinos (@RNCLatinos) July 11, 2022
The First Lady has apologized, and it's not that big of a deal, but silly affronts and condescending nonsense (like "Latinx Incluxion," for example) can add up to take a toll. I'll leave you with Marco Rubio trolling:
#NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/QsYqCaNOoP
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) July 12, 2022
This isn't bad either:
As per CNN: I'm not the real deal
— Mayra Flores For Congress (@MayraFlores2022) July 12, 2022
Maybe I'm not the right type of taco ?? pic.twitter.com/ORfN9BKtrb
