Editor's Note: This column was co-authored by Daniel G. DeVos and Tom Rastin.
Hopefully, over Valentine’s Day weekend, you spent time with loved ones, relaxing, enjoying a nice meal or two, and exchanging gifts. However, if you turned on the television—especially on Sunday—you likely saw prominent Democrats and Republicans debating the positions of President Trump and Elon Musk on DOGE. Through the media and their guests, we heard a wide range of opinions on DOGE, government spending, and the growing U.S. federal budget deficit.
Our Growing National Debt
As of February 17th, based on Treasury Department data, the U.S. national debt had reached $36.49 trillion—and was still climbing. That equated to more than $107,000 per capita. Currently, the U.S. national debt stands at just over 123 percent of GDP, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion by the end of the current fiscal year, September 30, 2025.
Consider the following: less than 50 years ago—by the end of President Reagan’s first year in office in 1981—the U.S. national debt had just surpassed $1 trillion, equaling roughly 35 percent of U.S. GDP. To put this in perspective, it took the United States 205 years to accumulate a $1 trillion U.S. national debt and just under 45 years to increase it by $35.5 trillion. This rapid acceleration is alarming.
The U.S. Gross National Debt consists of federal debt held by the public and Treasury securities held by various government agencies. Each year’s deficit increases are calculated based on the government's fiscal calendar, which runs from October 1 to September 30.
According to Statista, the U.S. gross national debt is projected to reach $36.75 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2025 and balloon to $54.3 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2034. Unfortunately, if anything, we believe Statista’s forecast may be optimistic.
Why DOGE Offers Hope
There’s plenty of data to analyze relative to DOGE’s initial impact on President Trump’s second term.
Just 30 days into his presidency, Trump’s DOGE team has already produced impressive results. Recently, Elon Musk reported that DOGE initiatives have yielded at least $55 billion in savings. Meanwhile, a group of statisticians have developed a tracking model, known as the DOGE Clock, which estimates those savings at roughly $115 billion.
If these trends continue through the end of the fiscal year, the potential savings are significant. We estimate that through increased government efficiency and reductions in waste and fraud, the U.S. government could save between $400 billion and $805 billion by the end of this fiscal year.
Of course, the pace of these savings may fluctuate depending on the level of new findings, legal challenges, and overall progress. However, the impact so far has been remarkable. More Americans should be aware of, encouraged by, and vocal about these reforms. The financial benefits of DOGE, coupled with fiscal and regulatory changes—particularly in energy markets—could make the economy more efficient and productive, spurring the creation of thousands of small businesses and entrepreneurs and tens of thousands of new employees. A stronger economy could drive GDP growth by at least 1 percentage point.
If economic expansion leads to increased tax revenue while DOGE-driven efficiencies continue saving the government upwards of $1 trillion annually, the U.S. could achieve a balanced federal budget—and even a surplus—within two years. This hasn’t happened since the Clinton-Gingrich partnership in the late 1990s.
Conclusion
As Winston Churchill famously stated in a 1942 speech at London’s Mansion House, “The price of liberty is eternal vigilance.” In that speech, Churchill emphasized the importance of constant awareness and preparedness to protect freedom and capitalism from military, political, and economic threats. His concerns were echoed again in his famous Iron Curtain Speech shortly after World War II at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri. In that 1946 speech, he warned a lack of vigilance had allowed serious political and economic problems to take root across Europe and beyond. In the nearly 80 years since Churchill’s speech, it is obvious that America has also been less vigilant, taking many blessings for granted. Many of Churchill’s concerns regarding the loss of political and economic freedom have taken root in the United States, resulting in growing encroachments on personal freedom, excessive taxation and regulation, and a national debt approaching 125 percent of U.S. GDP.
We must once again embrace the timeless American traditions of freedom, limited government, and the rule of law, free enterprise, and entrepreneurship. These traditions must be part of the daily lexicon in our grade schools, high schools, colleges and universities, in our union halls, boardrooms, courtrooms and at our dinner tables. It has been these traditions that have made America the great country she is today; if we fail to embrace and honor them vigilantly, they will cease to exist.
It is in the spirit of Churchill’s counsel that we applaud numerous leaders in Washington from President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance and Elon Musk to Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain and our Supreme Court for their wisdom, courage, insight, leadership, and commitment to restoring confidence in America.
With continued voter support of reform, we hope the president and both sides of the aisle in Congress will be able to implement a model that reduces the national debt to below $20 trillion by 2034—instead of allowing it to exceed $54 trillion.
If this vision becomes reality, we can’t help but imagine Ronald Reagan smiling down from heaven, turning to Churchill and remarking, “Washington, D.C. may finally become that shining city on a hill after all.”
About the Authors: Dr. Timothy G. Nash is Sr. Vice-President, Emeritus and director of the McNair Center at Northwood University. Dr. Daniel G. DeVos is President and CEO of DP Fox Ventures based in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Dr. Thomas Rastin is a retired business executive from Ohio.
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