The common tendency to want to be proven correct when making political predictions never applied to me when it came to my long-held belief that Donald Trump could not win the general election. And why would it? My life over the next four years, even with a little egg on my face, would be infinitely better with Trump at the helm, at least making reasonably rational decisions that put our country and its people first, than with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris continuing to steer us down the abyss, and it’s not even close.
As you probably know, if you’ve caught this column over the past year or two, I switched my support from Trump to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the GOP primaries. I did it for a variety of reasons. Despite the lies that his online influencers told about him, DeSantis is inarguably the most ‘based’ governor any of us have seen in our lifetimes. If he had had a shot as the GOP nominee in a very winnable year, he would have doubtless brought the same energy and policy victories to Washington that he brought to Florida. But even more than that, I believed that DeSantis - or virtually any other candidate - would have easily won this election over Biden.
I still believe the first part of that. I disagree with Nikki Haley and Tim Scott on many issues, but I also think they would have easily won this election. In fact, given how tired most of America is of both Biden and Trump, had either party nominated someone new and reasonably fresh, they likely would have cruised to victory over the other. The problem for Republicans was that someone first had to get past the former president, and none could.
Does that make me a Trump-hater? Absolutely not! I hated how he performed during Covid, but I agreed with the majority of policies he put forth, even if I thought he could have been far more effective in choosing the right people to implement them. But, by and large, having Trump in the White House was a comfort if only for knowing that the ship was moving at least slowly in the right direction and the craziest leftist policies would be put on hold for as long as he was there. If I could wave a magic wand and put Trump in the White House again, I absolutely would.
However, I firmly believed, especially given the ongoing cases against him and the threat that they could take him off the field or at the least severely hamper his ability to campaign, that it was impossible for Trump to win in November. I believed the polls that showed him beating Biden were mirages that would shift dramatically as soon as he became the nominee.
I am beginning, however, to rethink those beliefs, and though I have to leave some room for wishful thinking as a possibility, I’m not sure it’s all that. Why? First, the polls didn’t shift nearly as much as I feared. Yes, Trump is leading by a razor’s edge, but he didn’t lead and even trailed by a significant margin during the 2020 election cycle. It’s already almost mid-June and the latest CBS and Emerson general election polls have Trump up by 1%. This time, four years ago, polling averages had Biden consistently up by around 8%. I don’t care how you slice it, that’s a YUGE difference.
Even more important than the popular vote in our Electoral College system, of course, is the individual states. Before the past couple of months, I didn’t think Trump had a snowball’s chance of winning Arizona and Georgia back, yet he is leading comfortably in both. He is also proving competitive in states like Nevada and, of all places, Virginia. Now, don’t get me wrong, Trump isn’t winning Virginia. However, the fact that polling is that close is still significant.
Far from taking him off the field, the Manhattan conviction hasn’t seemed to hurt Trump at all. I still don’t think they’ll actually send him to prison, which seems to be the fear of many. As much as they hate Trump, they also consider him their best shot at pulling Biden across the finish line and, as such, would never risk forcing the GOP to nominate someone else at the convention.
Tellingly, these polling numbers have occurred with Trump on trial, off Twitter/X, and largely out of the public view. Which means, oddly enough, that some form of house arrest could actually work in our favor. The less people see of Trump, and the more people see of Biden, the better off Republicans are.
I’m not in any way assuming a win. In fact, I still think a loss is the most likely scenario. However, if Trump can stay reasonably on message, it is quite possible he will pull this thing out, and the chances are better than they were in 2016 or 2020.
If that happens, feed me that crow. I’ll eat it and savor every bite.
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