With Donald Trump's re-election came extensive changes to American foreign policy. Faced with challenges from the Pacific to the Middle East to Europe, where Russia’s war on Ukraine rages, the administration is reevaluating strategies, concepts, costs, and priorities of American global engagement.
This is particularly poignant as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is invited to the White House on Tuesday, February 4th. Expected topics are the future of the Abraham Accords, the way ahead for Gaza, and the escalating Iranian nuclear threat.
The role of allies in the greater Middle East must increase if President Trump decides to take decisive measures against the Iranian mullahs’ nuclear and missile arsenal. Recognizing the era of American appeasement to Iran is over, Moscow and Tehran signed a defense treaty on January 17th.
Bringing Israel back from the cold, where it was kept by the Obama and Biden administrations, as veteran Middle East analyst Shoshana Bryen wrote, confirms the demise of “The Blob”: the foreign policy establishment that has managed foreign affairs since the end of the Cold War. The demise of this elite is due to its own failure to advance basic American security interests.
Dr. John C. Hulsman, managing partner of the global political risk firm John Hulsman Enterprises and a former Senior Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, says, “The Trump team is dominated by realists, a foreign policy school of thought that traces itself back to George Washington and Alexander Hamilton.”
Unlike "The Blob,” which never saw a global problem that the US could not be at the center of correcting, realists believe that if America tries to do everything, it ends up doing nothing well. As such, prioritization of being “the global policeman” is out.
Hulsman adds, “Conducting foreign policy is not like turning a water faucet on and off. It is not that America should be all about the Indo-Pacific and isolationist as far as the rest of the world. That would be a recipe for catastrophic failure. Rather, as the US prioritizes in a realist fashion, it needs allies to work on keeping things calm and world commerce flowing. And it is crucial to pick the right allies.”
A prime example is Azerbaijan with its influence extending well beyond the strategic Caucasus and Caspian Sea regions. Israel and Azerbaijan have been allies for three decades. Hulsman further notes, “The Israeli-Azeri military-strategic alliance has centered around their shared concern about the revolutionary power that is the Islamic Republic of Iran – which the Obama and Biden administrations both mistakenly tried to involve in stabilizing the Middle East by making concessions to its drive for regional dominance.”
Tehran’s antipathy for Israel (and, of course, the U.S.) is legendary. Less recognized is Iran’s hostility toward Azerbaijan, both in terms of Baku’s pro-western orientation and religious tolerance offering another model of Shi’ism to the world, as well as the more practical fact that Azeris are Iran’s largest minority group. Long worried that restless Azeris could join the most-certain future revolt against Tehran’s increasingly unpopular government, Iran has watched Baku with paranoid suspicion.
Realization of a common threat to religious tolerance cemented Israeli-Azeri ties, which have developed into a mature de-facto alliance. Bordering Iran to the north, Azerbaijan has provided Israel with critical intelligence while maintaining close ties with NATO member Turkey. Baku’s military prowess was recently on display in the Second Karabakh War of 2020. With the use of Israeli and Turkish munitions, Azerbaijan reclaimed much of its territory previously invaded by Armenia, a client of Iran and a former client of Putin’s Russia. Bilateral negotiations to settle the border are underway.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan is vital to Europe’s energy security now that Russian energy exports have been dramatically curtailed by the Ukraine war. Azerbaijan is a regional trade hub and undeniably the most important country in the south Caucasus in terms of size, population, economy, and military power. Its commitment to NATO values is undeniable.
From America’s perspective, the regional alliance structure is clear. Turkey, Israel, and Azerbaijan (acting as the vital diplomatic bridge between the two) and Abraham-Accords countries amount to pro-American, status quo forces in the region. Russia and Iran are revolutionary powers determined to upend stability that serves America’s fundamental interests. Washington now has the means and leadership to serve as a second diplomatic bridge between Turkey and Israel. Egypt and Jordan have successfully proven antagonism towards the Jewish State does not need to exist. America can work with Turkey and Israel to achieve the same result.
The US engaging with Baku within this general alliance structure amounts to a no-brainer precisely because it is past time for America to properly prioritize its foreign commitments. In this era of surging realism, strong alliances will be the foundation of long-term regional stability and global security. Working with Israel, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is a good place for the Trump Administration to start. Following Azerbaijan’s lead, this will be a coalition of tolerance and international cooperation in which Iran cannot endure.