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Is This the Most Overrated Poll for 2024?

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  Mar 12, 2024
The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Townhall.com.

There’s going to be a deluge of analysis and commentary about polling. We’re in for another weird election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, a rematch that no one wanted, but here we are. I couldn’t care less about that part of this race, something that Nikki Haley annoyingly brought up at every conceivable moment while ignoring that no one wanted her to be the face of the GOP. The only primaries where she did decent were open primaries, where Haley supporters were primarily Democrats in New Hampshire and Vermont. On Super Tuesday, Republicans voted overwhelmingly for Trump, who is about to clinch the Republican nomination officially. So, now that the camps have been established, can we do away with this poll ahead of this senior showdown? 

It's favorability. It’s now rendered irrelevant that Trump and Biden rank similarly with voters. The liberal media loved to hit on Trump’s bad marks with voters. Yet, Biden isn’t doing much better. Both are unpopular, but one has a worse record, cognitive decline, and is held hostage by his base’s insane policy positions lest he lose them in November. 

It's the reason why Joe had to apologize to the illegal alien who murdered Laken Riley in Georgia in February. Biden referred to Riley’s killer, Jose Ibarra, 26, as an “illegal” during his rancorous and partisan State of the Union Address. That, more than the murder, infuriated progressives, who thought the president should have used the sanitized term “undocumented” instead. 

The only thing this favorable/unfavorable poll is useful for right now is pointing out the obvious: 2024 will be a base election. Whoever hates the other side more will win, which is politics in its purest form. It is the organization of our animosities. Right now, Joe Biden is facing internal rebellion from Arab American voters, which threatens his Rust Belt standings, rank-and-file labor union members, young voters, blacks, and Hispanics. Trump is fine, despite the Nikki Haley nonsense. Roughly ten percent of the party always defects to the other side. He doesn’t need to win over folks who are soft Democrats at heart. Don’t let open primary exits throw you off—Haley doesn’t have 25 percent support among base conservatives. 

Can Biden win over, or at least blunt, the damage his effete presidency has caused to the Obama coalition? My guess would be no since he can’t remember when his son died. And no, Joe Biden isn’t suddenly leading—Newsweek’s article features polls where it’s essentially a dead heat. The only thing keeping Biden alive are wine-sipping suburbanites and single college-educated women, who won’t be able to counter the defections from young voters, blacks, Hispanics, and labor unions. 

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Time will tell, but if someone mentions Trump’s unfavorable ratings as a sign that trouble might be ahead, just shrug. Both guys are in the same pool. Trump needs to stay focused, not go overly crazy, and remind people of his booming economy. Despite what liberals might think, the Trump coalition is one of the most diverse and efficiently distributed voter blocs in the country—they live in areas where elections are decided, which is why this is going to be a close election no matter how you cut it. Both camps don’t need to worry about winning this or that group that isn’t decidedly in each other’s base camps. It’s about shoring up the most rabid Democrats and Republicans out there. Biden and Trump have months to do that.