Having children used to be a normal part of the human life cycle. Not anymore. We are having fewer children and as a result, our societies are becoming older and less dynamic.
When I became religiously-observant during my Ph.D. work in Madison, Wisconsin, I entered a world that in the past would have been considered normal. Religious people tend to marry in their early 20s, as do their kids. Thus, parents become grandparents in their early to mid-40s and great-grandparents in their 60s. I have many friends who fall into such a category. If you were to ask people in the States to pick out a picture of “grandpa”, they would find some white-haired fellow, somewhat bent over and walking with a cane. The reality of “young” grandparents is that they could be running a marathon or serving as reserve soldiers, rifle and all.
Generations used to be measured every 20 years. In the West, that value seems definitely less relevant today. The CIA has a fertility rate chart. The first Western country to appear is Israel at No. 51, with 2.93 children per woman (2.1 is considered replacement level). The relatively high number is due in part to large Arab and Orthodox Jewish populations. The first European country on the list is France at position 123 with 1.9 children per woman. This value is well under the replacement cutoff. The US comes in at 134 with a value of 1.84. That value was 3.58 in 1958, after which it started to go down. The overall world birth rate at 2.30 is down 50 percent over the past few decades. The top reproduction slots are held by Niger, Angola, Congo, Mali, Benin, and Chad, all well over five children born per woman.
Many have discussed the serious implications of low birthrates. Mark Steyn has often said that “demography is destiny” as Muslims in European countries out-reproduce the local populations by large numbers. Thus, “Muhammed” can be the most popular baby name in four out of nine regions in England. Some countries like Germany and even China have tried to either bribe or strongly convince their native population to have more children, with little effect. In the end, for all of our secular progress and knowledge, marriage and child-raising are still heavily associated with religious obligation. As nations become less religiously observant, fewer marry and those who marry tend to have fewer children. Whereas bringing children into the world in the past was considered to be fulfilling the religious obligation of “be fruitful and multiply”, today it is often associated with lack of sleep, high costs of schooling and upkeep, loss of freedom of travel, and added obligations. Why would people give up on a good night’s sleep and the freedom to jet off to the Bahamas when they can just get a dog instead?
Another factor in the West explaining low birth rates is people spending more of their younger years pursuing educational opportunities. During my undergraduate stay at Harvard, I had the unique opportunity to teach two sections of an organic chemistry course. One day, I spoke with a student of mine and she confided that while personally she would like to marry and start a family, her parents and others had high expectations that she would leverage her Harvard training to go on to medical school followed by residency and eventually a successful career. Getting married and having kids did not fit into their vision for her near future.
Lower marriage rates, abortion and to a lesser extent, homosexuality, trans, and young people worried about a future climate apocalypse reduce the number of children brought into the world. The US population has been steadily growing, but only by admitting millions of illegal aliens through the porous southern border. The massive influx, including over 6 million during just three years of the Biden presidency, has led to serious problems in towns and cities throughout America. New York Mayor Eric Adams is at a loss how to house and feed thousands of illegals gifted by Governor Abbott of Texas. He has taken over schools and told kids to learn remotely, as Mexicans and others live in their gyms. O’Hare Airport in Chicago has large spaces sectioned off for illegal aliens also sent north from the border. Europe took in millions of Muslim refugees, causing serious social and at times security problems. Most terror attacks in Europe are traced back to immigrants from the Middle East, while the 2,000 white girls raped in Rotherham over several decades were harmed primarily by Pakistani men, with the police and social service authorities looking the other way. Importing foreigners to replace the babies we are not producing comes with societal risks.
One other feature of young parents having kids is that society at large remains young at heart. We have been blessed with our first grandchild. Our house has once again filled with toys and children’s books. When he is here, we spend our time playing with him on the floor or taking him to the park. By having children young, families stay young. I have friends in their 80s who have great-grandchildren coming over to visit, and they always look forward to it. The US Census Bureau put it bluntly last year: “America is Getting Older,” with the average age rising to 38.9, with no state—not one—seeing a reduction in median age since the last census. In 1960, the median US age was 29.5. In Pakistan today with its fertility rate of 3.56, the median age is 20.6.
Younger societies tend to be more dynamic, more optimistic, more willing to take risks. As Western societies become older, they become more lethargic and more risk-averse. Maybe it is an appropriate sign of the times that Trump vs. Biden II will feature two 80-year-olds fighting it out for the Oval Office. Think of the optimism that was associated—rightly or wrongly—with the election of younger presidents like Kennedy, Clinton and Obama.
Tax breaks, free land, discounted schooling and the like will not significantly increase Western fertility. Should these societies find it in themselves to become more religiously observant, then maybe the downward trend of births per woman will be reversed. In our secular age, such a sea change seems quite unlikely.