If the presidential election were on January 28, 2024, Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee, would probably repeat the feat of Democrat Grover Cleveland – from over 100 years ago – to become only the second president ousted from the White House to return four years later.
There are really five huge issues that are dragging Joe Biden down. Here they are, in order of their importance:
First, Joe Biden is both extremely old and increasingly senile, and this is more and more obvious. Look at this video of Biden debating Paul Ryan in 2012. Look at this video of Joe Biden debating Donald Trump. Now look at this. And look at this. And this. Joe Biden is an old and frail 81, and no longer so smooth of tongue, as he once was. During the John Roberts hearing, for example, Joe Biden spoke at length about the nomination. (I know, I was there, keeping the time.) He could never do this today. The general public knows that age/senility is Biden’s biggest problem, and they strongly believe that he is simply not capable of serving another four-year term. See this poll, and this one, and this one.
Second, the economy is bad, and Biden was the president when it went sour. Let’s look at the specifics:
“Biden’s approval rating has fallen to a record low of 34 percent, according to a Monmouth University poll … with nearly 70 percent of respondents disapproving of his handling of inflation. More than half of respondents disapproved of Biden’s record on jobs...,” The Hill reports.
Most importantly, inflation is a continuing and huge problem. It is still well above the Fed’s 2% annual target, and many Americans have been feeling the frustration of rising prices for years:
“(O)verall, prices have risen about 16 percent since January of 2021,” writes David Catron in The American Spectator. “(Americans) know that the cost of gasoline has gone up from $2.42 per gallon in January of 2021 to $3.95 per gallon in September of 2023. They know that the rate for a 30-year mortgage has skyrocketed from less than 3 percent in 2021 to nearly 8 percent.”
Even worse for Biden, even many people who dislike Donald Trump believe Trump was better on the economy – prior to COVID-19, which Trump is not blamed for – than Biden.
Third, the Southern border is out of control. Since President Biden took office, the U.S. Border Patrol has encountered or observed approximately ten million illegal border crossers between ports of entry. His administration's relatively lax attitude toward illegal entry has prompted outrage from many, including Democrats, as blue states are now experiencing problems for the first time, thanks to the Republican border state’s decision to bus them to Sanctuary States/Cities.
There is plenty of polling to show that the American public is very concerned with the border problem, and that the public holds Joe Biden personally responsible for it. This open border is especially dangerous, as some of the illegal immigrants are inevitably going to be either criminals or terrorists.
Fourth, the Gaza situation is pitting the pro-Hamas base of the Democrat Party, which could be as large as 40% of their voters, against the pro-Israel Democrats. And the pro-Hamas faction is growing more virulent, more violent and more out-of-control as time moves on. They are killing pro-Israel Democrats, rioting against Jewish or Israeli owned stores, and attacking the White House, Grand Central Station, and a Museum of Tolerance. Because of this Democrat divide, we have Biden verbally supporting Israel, while, behind the scenes, he attempts to undermine it. But it is not going to be enough; Biden needs the war to end, and to cater to his pro-Hamas base. And if he does, the pro-Israel Democrats will not be happy, and could be picked off by Donald Trump.
Fifth, there’s the Biden influence peddling scandal, which is undermining Joe Biden’s reputation. In 2019, Joe Biden was considered a typical, generally uncorrupt, moderate Democrat politician. But not anymore. Now we know that Joe Biden, as a sitting Vice President from 2009 through 2017 (and after), used his ne'er-do-well, alcoholic, drug addicted, sex crazed, son, Hunter Biden, to serve as the bag man for the Biden family influence operation, which involved taking money from foreign, and sometimes enemy nations, like China and Russia.
This included a likely quid pro quo regarding the Ukrainian company named Burisma. It is alleged that Burisma paid Hunter Biden to have Joe Biden get rid of a Ukrainian prosecutor named Victor Shokin, and there is a ton of evidence for this. There is the report by a confidential informant of a bribe from Burisma to the Bidens. There is the video of Joe Biden bragging about firing Shokin (this being direct evidence). There is evidence that shows that contrary to what Joe Biden said, the Obama administration didn’t think Shokin was corrupt and needed to go. And there is plenty of evidence that money went to Hunter Biden from Burisma (which means Joe was bribed).
The amazing part is, we still have no alternate explanation as to why Hunter Biden was being paid by Burisma. Was it for Hunter Biden’s legal acumen, or his expertise in hookers or drugs? Or was it simply to influence Joe? I think we all know the answer to this supposed conundrum. This Biden corruption scandal is totally new from 2020, because it was suppressed by Democrat-supporting media individuals back then. A retroactive poll shows that had the scandal come out in 2020, Joe Biden, who only barely won the electoral college, would have failed to defeat Donald Trump. This is perhaps the easiest scandal of all scandals to understand, and everyone thinks bribery is a serious crime.
These are all huge problems for Joe Biden in 2024, and these difficulties aren’t likely to get any better. Joe Biden is only going to get older and have more senility glitches. The economy isn’t likely to improve, and it may get worse. For political reasons and ideology, the Biden administration does not want to stop the flow of illegal immigrants. The Gaza war is likely to continue on for some length. And more and more evidence of Joe Biden and his family’s corruption will come out of the House impeachment inquiry.
Joe Biden has some big problems here, and they aren’t going away.
Adam Turner is a foreign policy expert and national security professional, with two decades of experience on Capitol Hill and in Washington DC.