This is not adding up the way Terry McAuliffe thought it would.
He thought he could tie Glenn Youngkin to Donald Trump and be done with the upstart. Then he thought he could align himself with the man who expelled Trump from the White House – whose political reputation would put him in the mainstream of Virginia’s Democrat Party.
Then he thought he could paint his opponent as a waffler on abortion and anti-vax zealot and place himself on the side of the school boards against parents in the various fights over curriculum going on in Loudoun County and elsewhere.
As these strategies have unfolded, McAuliffe’s lead over Youngkin has shrunk from nine points in August to six in September to one as of the first week of October. The Cook Political Report has moved the race into the tossup category. The coalitions of voters that have enabled Democrats to win every statewide race since 2009 are in place, but the numbers are down significantly from what they usually deliver.
In Northern Virginia – the 8th, 10th and 11th congressional districts, which include large swaths of Fairfax County, Alexandria, Arlington and Loudoun counties – McAuliffe leads, 64-36. Last November, Fairfax went 70 percent for Joe Biden, Alexandria and Arlington went 80 percent and Loudoun 61 percent.
But Biden’s disapproval rating in Virginia has increased 15 points since February and his unfavorable rating by 17 points, according to Roanoke College polling. Biden, who endorsed and campaigned for McAuliffe, is now polling in the low- to mid-40s in Virginia. The poll found 22 percent said Biden’s endorsement made them more likely to vote for McAuliffe, but 39 percent said it made it less likely.
McAuliffe himself admitted President Biden was a drag on his ticket.
Also, Hispanic voters actually have broken 55-45 for Youngkin, and although the Emerson poll showed a 72-25 percent edge for McAuliffe among Black voters, Youngkin just became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate ever to earn the endorsement of the Hampton Roads Black Caucus.
The non-partisan group, whose mission is to “increase representation of local elected officials who advocate and support legislation to enhance community,” endorsed McAuliffe in 2013 and current Gov. Ralph Northam in 2017.
McAuliffe’s remarks that parents shouldn’t be involved in planning curriculum do not match voters’ expectations either. The Emerson poll found 52 percent said parents should be more involved in curriculum planning; only 33 percent said school boards should have more influence.
McAuliffe’s attack on Youngkin’s abortion position backfired as well. Though more voters disagreed than agreed with Youngkin’s pro-life stance, they thought, by a 45-34 margin, that Youngkin had been honest about his beliefs.
McAuliffe’s mockery of Youngkin’s opposition to mask mandates has not fared well either. A Washington Post poll in September found nearly 70 percent of Virginians favored mask mandates and 67 percent favored vaccine mandates for teachers.
But the Emerson poll found voters favored McAuliffe to best handle covid by only 51-48, and a Roanoke College poll found 42 percent of Virginia voters thought the pandemic had been overhyped, and only 38 percent disagreed.
Pollsters differ on Youngkin’s actual chances of pulling this off, but all acknowledge a significant enthusiasm gap between Republicans eager to end their 12-year losing streak and Democrats who have come to see themselves as dominant and concern over this race as overblown.
The Roanoke poll found 43 percent of Republicans say they are “very enthusiastic” to vote in this year’s election, compared to only 31 percent of Democrats, and Sabato says he still hasn’t seen enough evidence to move the race from the “likely Democratic” category – but the metric he’s watching most closely is whether Democratic enthusiasm emerges.
Things are going McAuliffe’s way so far. Already nearly 300,000 have voted – compared to 195,000 at this point in 2017 – and McAuliffe-favorable districts in Northern Virginia have had the biggest early turnout. And the state is trending bluer – Biden won the 2020 presidential election by more than twice the margin Hillary Clinton enjoyed in 2016.
But the issues in the election are the economy, covid response and curriculum in the schools, and McAuliffe doesn’t have a significant edge in any of those areas. Virginia has not had a mask mandate in months, and anyone who has been to a football game in the state can tell you it won’t be popular to reinstate one as McAuliffe has hinted he would do.
Virginians can’t help but notice the states without mandates have fared better than the others, and the school board battles have energized voters in Democrat strongholds, such as Loudoun County.
The title of a recent Slate piece read: “Uh, Maybe Democrats Should Start Paying Attention to the Virginia Governor’s Race.” For once, Slate could be on to something.