Before this week, and for most of the past 18 months since the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023, it has been hard to catch one’s breath in Israel, as if we are sprinting through an endless marathon, all the while dodging potholes that come out of nowhere.
This week, the potholes multiplied, some became barriers, and the pace of the endless marathon became even more frenzied, making catching one’s breath all the more challenging.
This week, Israel renewed active combat in dozens of targeted strikes throughout Gaza, taking out Hamas leaders, infrastructure, and weapons. It’s a misconception to think that the war was over, or that Israel suddenly broke a ceasefire. The truth is that the war never really ended even though there was a temporary cease fire that did end at the beginning of March. Hoping that a combination of negotiations to renew the ceasefire would yield results were dashed, even after the US mistakenly opened direct negotiations with Hamas. That even such dialogue was fruitless, and moreover that the US understood Hamas was playing them, makes the US position overall weaker.
It's no wonder then that the US has initiated until now unprecedented attacks on the Iranian backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen, and is reported to have engaged in intelligence gathering flights over the Iranian coast near where some if its nuclear installations are. Further, President Trump himself noted that Iran will be to blame if Houthi attacks continue. It’s a critical element of any counter terrorism operation that the stick is often more important and effective than the carrot.
After more than two weeks of a de facto ceasefire during which Israel hoped that an agreement could be reached to have the remaining 59 hostages released, Israel realized that it, too, needed to bring out the sticks. Overnight in one night along, Israel attacked Hamas some 80 positions and eliminated many of its remaining leaders in Gaza. The next day, allegedly in response to Israel’s attack in Gaza, Iranian backed Houthis resumed firing missiles at Israel. While it’s true and likely that one Iranian terrorist proxy supports another, it’s more likely that the Houthis used this as a way to save face, to show that despite the US attacks on them, they were not down for the count.
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Not lost on anyone, in addition to Trump’s tweet as a warning to Iran, the surveillance off the coast of Iran, possibly gathering intelligence on Iranian nuclear and other military sites, is also possibly in advance of an attack on Iran that’s necessary and long overdue if we ever want to truly eliminate the Islamic regime’s terrorist tentacles.
As if that were not enough, all this comes in the wake of increased violence in Syria with the current Islamic leadership targeting and massacring Christians and Alawites, fighting against Hezbollah forces inside Syria, and Israel extending protection of the Syrian Druze many of whose leaders made a recent highly publicized trip to Israel. At any point, any of these groups could use the timeless tactic of attacking Israel, to deflect their own internal issues and rally warring enemies against what many see as the common enemy.
If that’s not enough to leave your head spinning, the IDF Homefront Command has issued orders for Israelis to have their bomb shelters outfitted and stocked in case of emergency (aka increased rocket, drone, and missile attacks from any of four different directions). At the same time on the home front, Israel is facing widespread protests over the Prime Minister Netanyahu’s intention to fire Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet (General Security Service), Israel’s domestic security arm which was the pretext for major national protests being called, even though as of this writing he has yet to be fired.
Not to think that that’s all, there are other issues that are making political waves that could create a tsunami on their own in terms of the state budget, ultra-Orthodox draft, “Qatargate,” and of course conduct of the war and imperative to bring home the hostages. And all this is taking place as Israelis prepare for Passover in a few weeks, and airlines that had stayed away for months are just now restoring their flights as hopes for tourism coming back grow.
Since the resumption of combat, countless people have reached out asking for updates, how we are and specifically my military age sons and son in law, and what they can do and pray for. A friend in an elite IDF unit asked me to step up payment for life saving supplies that we had donated for his and other units because of the renewed combat and temperatures dropping once again.
Sharing details, especially in media interviews I have done, is important. But sharing the same details over and over becomes tiring too. So I decided to do a briefing, initially for concerned friends, and then wider, to discuss what all this means and how to make sense of what’s happening, how one thing impacts another, and a range of many other domestic and international factors that operate in parallel, but where the ripple effect of any of these can have widespread consequences.
I invited my friend, Major Elliot Chodoff to join me to help make sense of it all, and to know what to look for in the coming days. Indeed, in the coming days, many things can change, but as an international relations and military expert, he has his hand on the pulse and will offer unique and insightful firsthand input. Elliot is not just a 35-year military veteran, and political and military analyst specializing in the Middle East and the global war on terror. He is a decorated officer, a respected speaker, and a frequently published commentator in a wide range of major news sites and journals. He is witty and engaging and fun, and not only do I like and gain insight speaking to him, but he also has a breadth of knowledge to share. You’re invited to join us too.
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