On June 29, expatriate Iranian activists will gather in Berlin from all across Europe to participate in a rally organized by the leading coalition of democratic opposition groups, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). Similar summertime gatherings, many held outside Paris, have attracted upwards of 100,000 attendees, including high-profile political supporters from Europe, the United States, and across the world. All indications point to the forthcoming event being well-attended, and just as vigorously supported by international dignitaries and the NCRI’s many global supporters.
The event’s timing is uniquely significant this year. The demonstration will be held just one day after the Islamic Republic holds a special “election” to determine who will take the place of Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s former president who died in a helicopter crash in mid-May. Whomever assumes the mantle is certain to carry on the brutal domestic repression and violent regional interference that became synonymous with Raisi’s tenure during his three years in office.
This is so because the occupant of Iran’s presidency is the Islamic Republic’s second highest ranking official and is responsible for implementing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s edicts and wishes. Khamenei, the ultimate authority in all matters of state, provided his former Chief Justice with the backing needed to coast into office in 2021 following a tightly controlled election in which he effectively ran unopposed. The forthcoming election will be no less of a sham, and the Berlin rally that follows can be expected to spotlight Tehran’s democratic farce while pushing Western governments to adopt policies that formally recognize the illegitimacy of Iran’s ruling theocracy.
Ordinary Iranians have repeatedly underscored their contempt for their illiberal rulers by refusing to participate in the regime’s parody of democracy. The election that brought Raisi to power was undermined by a massive electoral boycott and the parliamentary elections earlier this year broke the record for low turnout that had been set less than three years earlier. Official government statistics suggest that just eight percent of would-be voters in the nation’s capital participated in that contest.
Political boycotts in Iran are an expression of more than four-decades of accumulated grievances, and a tell tale reflection of the people’s desire to see the ayatollahs driven from power and a new era of accountability ushered in. In fact, the NCRI’s main constituent group, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), and its network of “Resistance Units” inside the Islamic Republic, have explicitly promoted electoral boycotts for years as means of signaling the popular discontent so palpable on the Iranian street and manifesting a brighter future.
The Resistance Units have successfully followed these boycotts with grassroots efforts to organize anti-regime protests. The episodic rebellions have metastasized to a half dozen nationwide uprisings in recent years. The latest of these, which began in September 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of “morality police,” was widely described as the greatest challenge to the theocratic dictatorship since its inception in the wake of the 1979 revolution. Tehran has been struggling to put a lid on public dissent ever since, and its struggle is likely to intensify now that Raisi’s death has exacerbated a pre-existing political crisis and set the stage for Iranians from all walks of life to seek the regime’s overthrow.
When that happens, the international community should be prepared to respond more proactively and decisively than it did in the wake of the recent parliamentary elections, the election that brought Raisi to power, or even the outbreak of the 2022 uprising. Toward that end, Western policymakers should make a point of paying attention to the Berlin rally the day after Iran’s special election. The expatriate activists and their political supporters are likely to outline measures the United States, Britain, and the European Union can adopt to maximize the odds that Iranians are finally able to overthrow their despotic regime.
Washington took one essential step in 2019 by designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization. But it remains for US allies to follow suit, despite the fact that majorities in both the British and European Parliaments have voted in favor of doing so. The US should pursue follow-on policies that isolate the regime and underscore its biggest liability: a citizenry that despises their masters. And it should do so secure in the knowledge that by helping the Iranian people topple their clerical overseers, we will be setting their nation on a clear path to freedom and democracy.
Maryam Rajavi, whom the NCRI has designated to serve as Iran’s transitional president following the mullahs’ overthrow – and whose ten-point plan for Iran’s future has been enthusiastically endorsed by thousands of policymakers from a wide range of political affiliations across the West – can be expected to call on world leaders to support the pro-democracy aspirations of the Iranian people.
The NCRI’s platform calls for free and fair elections, separation of religion and state, and a legal framework for gender equality and minority rights. It also commits Iran’s future democratic republic to a complete disavowal of nuclear weapons and the pursuit of peaceful relations with its neighbors. In other words, its implementation would finally bring Iran into a global community of nations and safeguard the interests of the United States and its allies.
All that US officials need to do to help realize this outcome is recognize the rights of the Iranian people to fight back against tyranny and commit to supporting the regime’s opponents instead of bartering with the terrorists and human rights abusers now ruling Iran.
Prof. Ivan Sascha Sheehan is the associate dean of the College of Public Affairs and past executive director of the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Baltimore. Opinions expressed are his own. Follow him on X @ProfSheehan
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