Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has the inside lane to the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination, if he wants it. But aside from politics being about seizing opportunities when they present themselves, this decision may not be the slam dunk most people think it is.
If I were DeSantis, I would be running a series of risk / reward calculations in my mind:
1. Former President Donald Trump remains a formidable opponent. And a wounded Trump (like a wounded tiger) could still inflict severe damage on opponents he targets.
2. In light of the weaker-than-expected GOP midterm election performance, many blame Trump and he now seems genuinely weakened. Trump has seemed weakened many times before though, and always bounces back. Will this time be different?
3. If I run against Trump, it will likely get ugly, and Trump may hit gold once again with one of his piercing nicknames — like “Low Energy Jeb”, “Little Marco”, “Lying Ted” and “Crooked Hillary”. And being laughed "at" is perhaps the worst thing that can happen to a political career. Just ask Jeb, where is he now anyway? And does Trump have something embarrassing on me (as he claims) that I don’t want out in public?
4. If I get the 2024 nomination, and the hardcore Trumpers (a critical 10-15% Republicans) feel disrespected and stay home, I will lose the general election anyway. And I won’t get the nomination a second time (losers never do).
5. If I wait until 2028 to run for president, and Trump wins in 2024, I am good to go in 2028 as Trump will be termed out.
6. If I wait until 2028, and Trump loses to Biden in 2024, I still have a clear path for 2028 as Biden is termed out.
7. I am 44 years old and the elected governor of Florida until 2026...so I can wait for 2028 while still having a high profile position and voice. I will also be able to fulfill my four-year election commitment to the people of Florida.
8. Would being the VP candidate for Trump taint me for the future? If I cut a deal with Trump not to run in 2024, perhaps I can solidify his full support for 2028? Can I trust Trump on that? Will he still be alive? Or will he knife me and support Ivanka or Don Jr.? How do I guarantee such a deal? Could "Trump-DeSantis for 12 Years" be the winning ticket message?
9. A big problem is that elections are won at the margin. Losing even 5% of the Republican vote could be political death. Democrats still blame Ralph Nader for Al Gore losing to George W. Bush in 2000, and he took only 2.74% of the popular vote. One very large risk (especially with Trump’s self-destructive tendencies) is that if Trump loses the nomination, he may launch a MAGA third party and still run. If so, he will take a big chunk of Republicans and Democrats will win big. And I still most likely won't get the nomination a second time.
10. Attorney General Merrick Garland just played into Trump's hand by appointing a special counsel to investigate him, yet again. Even those who despise Trump the most, can't help but look at these seven years of non-stop investigations and special counsels and think it looks like a never-ending witch hunt. Garland's action only increases sympathy for Trump on the right, as well as provides more media coverage for him.
11. Elon Musk has now given Trump back his access to the largest political podium in the world, Twitter. Trump has 87.4 million followers on Twitter, yet only 4.6 million on Truth Social. When Trump starts using his Twitter account again, and he will, it will spark yet another media frenzy. Bottom line, Trump sucks up all the oxygen in every room. Why fight this when I can just wait for 2028?
12. And of course, Trump knows all of the above. And he will use it to his advantage to get me to stand aside and wait for 2028. Are the Trump threats fleeting fog, or will Trump follow through? Reverse psychology?
These are the thoughts and calculations that would be running through my mind. Bottom line, the question remains, 2024 or 2028?
In conclusion, if I were Ron DeSantis, I would just wait and watch for a while. And not take Trump's bait. There is still plenty of time to decide. Perhaps something significant will transpire in the next few months that will illuminate the best path forward.
George Mullen is the author of "The Coming Financial Tsunami" (2005) and "Welcome to the Bubble Economy" (2006), which accurately predicted the 2007-08 global economic crash. He is spearheading Sunbreak Ranch in the effort to end America's homeless crisis. He is a principal of StudioRevolution.com in San Diego, California.
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