There is no question that Russian President Vladimir Putin has seriously miscalculated and violated international law by invading Ukraine. After getting assurances that Ukraine would not be invited to join NATO, the Russian strongman should have taken a deep breath and focused on some domestic political reforms. Instead, he appears to be in over his head — and the Russian Army appears grossly incompetent.
What the Western democracies don’t need to do is commit an equally grave miscalculation and provide the opportunity for Putin to ignite a third world war that could lead to nuclear conflict.
Are we in the midst of a perfect storm? Putin is apparently not thinking clearly, Zelensky is eager to bring NATO into the conflict, and European leaders have suddenly decided this is the time to draw a line in the sand and dare Russia to cross it.
The economic sanctions are bound to constrict the Russian war machine just as surely as the depth of Ukrainian resistance has seriously impeded its advance to Kyiv.
But that doesn’t change the fact that this is the largest conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War, and one that could easily expand.
What is increasingly unnerving is that both Russia and America are seriously musing about the war’s potential expansion, and almost pretending that it wouldn’t have catastrophic results.
NATO is readying its Response Force in anticipation of Russian aggression towards a NATO state. Putin has threatened to go nuclear and Russia has declared its nuclear forces to be at “special operational readiness status." On Monday, Putin warned Russia considers the provision of even defensive armament to Ukraine to be a provocation that would lead to serious consequences.
But the highly charged rhetoric and apparent assumption that expansion of the war is something that can be controlled is terrifying. Because it cannot be. There is nothing more uncontainable as war once it breaks out. That’s why we have to do everything we can to avoid that escalation. Is Russia justified in its aggression? Absolutely not. But it is entirely likely that any Ukrainian occupation would quickly become another Afghanistan, with Russian soldiers trying to keep an uncooperative population under control. It is even possible that Russia will fail to defeat Ukrainian resistance.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been praised as a modern day Winston Churchill for his unflagging calls for Ukrainians to resist the Russian invader, but his rhetoric too is volatile. He asked the United States Monday to enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine. This suggestion was entirely insane and thankfully was rejected by the Biden administration on the basis that it would lead to armed conflict between the U.S. and Russia. But Zelensky appears ready and willing to pull the United States into this war at any cost.
And if you don’t believe the unthinkable can happen that quickly, just review 20th Century history.
What's unfolding is highly reminiscent of the events that led up to the First World War as nations seemed to stand by and watch events spiral out of control and some military leaders believed in the inevitability and even the desirability of war — deluding themselves that it would be a short, cleansing experience.
The failure of diplomacy and the cavalier attitude of European leaders towards bloodshed in that era is just as apparent today. As the state machinery lost control of events and the world began to sleepwalk towards war, in July 1914, we could potentially be doing so again.
The First World War was a catastrophe that led to the deaths of millions on the battlefield and to the political transformation of Europe, including the establishment of a Bolshevik government in Russia that terrorized and murdered its citizens for decades.
A nuclear war in Europe would make the Great War look like a police action. Having been raised in a military family and having served in the military myself, I am no pacifist or anti-nuke advocate. I lived through some of the Cold War and in those days we understood that nuclear weapons were there for deterrence and were not a weapon of choice. Leftists had such anxiety over potential for nuclear war in the 1980s that we had to endure constant warnings from the news and entertainment media that we were minutes away from an atomic conflagration on the nuclear clock. Remember “The Day After”?
What makes 2022 vastly different from 1914 is the role of the media. There were only daily newspapers prior to the First World War and the news was hardly breaking. Today, we literally live in a 24/7 cable news environment where the invasion of Ukraine is almost the only news story and is served up night and day without rest. To fill the space, politicians are allowed ample opportunity to provide endless commentary that is not always prudent. Reuters fact checkers have found media outlets using old photos and videos in a social media propaganda war that is confusing and upsetting.
Within this constant barrage of social media where everyone from presidents, to journalists, to half-wits can pontificate on the war and propose solutions, some feasible, but many half-baked.
When President Biden appears to be the sanest and most collected world leader in the mix, it indicates that history seems to be unraveling as it shouldn’t. Though clearly Biden must wear the blame for America losing its energy independence and allowing both the U.S. and Europe to to rely on Russian oil.
This crisis could be resolved this week. But we are always telling ourselves to learn the lessons of history and we must be vigilant to ensure we don’t make the same mistakes that have led to military disasters in the past, as we are living in a vastly different world today that has a nuclear threat and is charged, diverted and often misinformed by social media.
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